农产品质量安全媒体负面报道对农产品价格波动的异质性影响  

The Heterogeneous Impact of Media Negative Coverage of Agricultural Product Safety on the Price Fluctuations of Agricultural Product

作　　者：曾华盛[1] 苏柳方 谭砚文[3] ZENG Huasheng;SU Liufang;TAN Yanwen

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [3]华南农业大学广东农村政策研究中心,广州510642

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2019年第8期99-114,共16页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国猪肉与蔬菜价格剧烈波动的稳健机制研究”(编号:71373087)

摘　　要：本文利用网络爬虫技术抓取和构建了农产品质量安全媒体报道指数,并基于文本分析方法将媒体报道按正负面情绪进行了分离,运用时变参数向量自回归(TVPVAR)模型分析媒体负面报道对农产品价格波动的影响。结果表明,媒体对农产品质量安全事件的报道往往带有负面情绪,其对农产品价格波动具有影响作用,并且这种作用存在地区、产品和时期上的差异。首先,负面报道对农村农产品价格波动的影响大于对城市农产品价格波动的影响;其次,负面报道对不同类别农产品价格波动产生不同的影响,对肉禽及其制品价格的冲击大于对粮食价格的冲击。当然,负面报道对农产品价格波动的影响在农产品质量安全事件爆发期影响最大,在复原期影响最小。This study applies Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regressive(TVP-VAR)model to investigate the effects of Media Negative Coverage of Agricultural Product Safety(MNCAPS)on the Price Fluctuations of Agricultural Product(PFAP). We construct an index of Media Coverage of Agricultural Product Safety(MCAPS)based on the data collection by Website Python,as well as apply text analysis method to separate the media coverage into positive and negative message. The results show that Media Coverage of Agricultural Product Safety Incidents(APSI)is often " negative" and affect PFAP significantly. However,there are heterogeneous influences among regions,products and periods. Firstly,the impact of MNCAPS on rural PFAP is greater than that of MNCAPS on urban PFAP. Secondly,the effect of MNCAPS of meat and poultry on PFAP is greater than that of MNCAPS on grain. Thirdly,the MNCAPS has the greatest impact on the PFAP,but the impact is the least during recovery period.

关 键 词：农产品质量安全事件 负面报道 价格波动 异质性 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F322