新疆对外贸易、全要素生产率与就业效应  

Total Factor Productivity, Foreign Trade and Employment of Xinjiang

作　　者：程中海[1] 柴永乐 CHENG Zhong-hai;CHAI Yong-le(College of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第4期37-47,共11页Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国与中亚区域贸易投资便利化推进战略研究”(13BGJ024);新疆维吾尔自治区普通高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地兵团屯垦经济研究中心基金资助项目“丝绸之路经济带建设背景下新疆国际大通道建设研究”

摘　　要：基于1990—2016年新疆统计数据,运用索洛残差法对新疆全要素生产率进行估算,在此基础上运用VAR模型检验对外贸易、全要素生产率(TFP)与就业的相关关系,并通过调节效应模型研究对外贸易与全要素生产率对就业的影响。研究结果表明:(1)1990—2016年新疆全要素生产率呈现“W”形波动,且在2009年达到最高点随后下降,2014年开始回升。(2)VAR协整检验表明对外贸易、全要素生产率及就业存在长期相关关系。(3)脉冲响应函数表明在短期全要素生产率与对外贸易对就业存在负面效应,但在中长期对就业的影响为正向。(4)调节效应模型则显示进口通过全要素生产率对就业产生负面影响,出口则不明显。原因可能是全要素生产率与产业结构不匹配,同劳动力素质不吻合。因此,新疆在“就业第一”的导向下,既要促进对外贸易高质量发展和全要素生产率的提高,同时注重劳动密集型与技术密集型就业的结构优化。Based on the statistical data of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2016, total factor productivity in Xinjiang was estimated by the Solow residual method. On this basis, VAR model was used to test the correlation between foreign trade, total factor productivity (TFP) and employment, and the impact of foreign trade and total factor productivity on employment was studied by adjustment effect model. The results show that (1) From 1990 to 2016, total factor productivity in Xinjiang showed a “W”-shaped fluctuation, which reached a peak in 2009 and then declined, and began to rise in 2014.(2) VAR co-integration test shows that there is a long-term correlation between foreign trade, total factor productivity and employment.(3) The impulse response function indicates that TFP and foreign trade have negative effects on employment in the short term, but may have positive effects on employment in the medium and long term.(4) The adjustment effect model shows that imports have a negative impact on employment through total factor productivity, while exports are not obvious. The reason may be that total factor productivity does not match the industrial structure and the quality of labor force. Therefore, under the guidance of “employment first”, Xinjiang should not only promote the high-quality development of foreign trade and the improvement of total factor productivity, but also pay attention to the structural optimization of labor-intensive and technology-intensive employment.

关 键 词：新疆 全要素生产率(TFP) 对外贸易 就业效应 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]