基于无偏估计的装甲装备器材需求灰色预测  

Grey prediction of armored equipment demand based on unbiased estimation

作　　者：刘素兵 曹大志 赵志辉 LIU Su-bing;CAO Da-zhi;ZHAO Zhi-hui(Basic Course Department,Rocket Force University of Engineering,Xi’an 710025,China;School of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi’an 710025,China)

机构地区：[1]火箭军工程大学基础部,陕西西安710025 [2]火箭军工程大学导弹工程学院,陕西西安710025

出　　处：《云南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第5期491-495,共5页Journal of Yunnan Minzu University:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：陕西省教育厅专项科研计划资助项目(17JK1023)

摘　　要：针对装甲装备器材需求数据采集过程中存在的数据采集偏差,建立了存在数据采集误差的装备器材需求灰色预测模型;分析了装备器材需求灰色预测模型中,最小二乘估计为无偏估计的条件是数据采集误差的期望为0,否则,最小二乘估计为有偏估计;最后针对数据采集偏差期望不为0的条件,给出一种基于辅助变量的无偏参数估计方法.通过实际案例仿真分析验证了方法的合理性和可行性.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the grey forecasting model for equipment demand, this paper presents an unbiased estimation method for the parameters of the grey forecasting model. Aiming at the data acquisition deviation in the process of data acquisition of armored equipment demand, this paper first establishes a grey prediction model of equipment demand with data acquisition errors. Secondly, in the grey forecasting model of equipment demand, the condition that the least-squares estimate is unbiased is that the expectation of the data acquisition error is 0;otherwise, the least-squares estimate is biased. Finally, an unbiased parameter estimation method based on auxiliary variables is proposed under the condition that the deviation expectation of data acquisition is not zero. The rationality and feasibility of this method are verified by the simulation analysis of a real case.

关 键 词：装备器材需求 灰色预测 无偏估计 最小二乘法 辅助变量 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]