基于EW-SPA的装配式建筑施工安全评价及预测  

Safety evaluation and prediction of prefabricated building construction based on EW-SPA

作　　者：冯亚娟[1] 都思竹 张竞一 FENG Yajuan;DU Sizhu;ZHANG Jingyi(School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125105,China;Real Estate Measurement Co.,Ltd.of Huludao,Huludao Liaoning 125105,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁葫芦岛125105 [2]葫芦岛市不动产测量有限公司,辽宁葫芦岛125105

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2019年第5期85-90,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51404125);辽宁省社科规划基金项目一般项目(L18BGL020)

摘　　要：针对装配式建筑施工过程的复杂性,联合应用熵权(EW)法和集对分析(SPA)法,构建基于EW-SPA的装配式建筑施工安全评价模型。首先,在识别风险因素的基础上,结合4M1E原理建立装配式建筑施工安全评价指标体系;其次,利用EW法确定指标权重,运用SPA法评价和预测装配式建筑施工安全状况;最后,以实际工程项目为例,确定该项目施工安全等级和发展态势。结果表明:该工程项目的安全等级为安全,总体态势向非常安全的方向发展;与其他装配式建筑安全评价方法相比,该模型克服了处理不确定性问题的不足,实用性较强,评价结果更加客观、准确。In light of the complexity of the prefabricated building construction process,EW method and SPA method are combined to develop a safety evaluation model for the prefabricated building construction.Firstly,a construction safety evaluation index system was established in accordance with the 4 M1 E principle after identifying risk factors. Then,the EW method was used to determine the index weight and the SPA method was used to evaluate and predict the safety status of the prefabricated building construction. Finally,with the actual project as an example,the construction safety level and development trends of the project were determined. The results show that the safety level of the project is safe which is developing generally toward the category of being very safe,and the model,compared with other fabricated building safety evaluation methods,demonstrates strong practicability and more objective and accurate evaluation results by overcoming the uncertainties.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 熵权(EW) 集对分析(SPA) 五元联系数 安全评价及预测 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]