基于三角模糊层次分析法的农产品滞销风险等级决策评价  

Decision-Making Evaluation of Agricultural Product Slow-Moving Risk Level Based on Triangular Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：刘俊 李云飞 雷亦敏 罗世华 LIU Jun;LI Yun-fei;LEI Yi-min;LUO Shi-hua(School of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第15期299-305,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：江西省高等学校教学改革研究基金(JXJG-18-4-20);江西省教育厅科技基金(GJJ180247)

摘　　要：为了有效预警和弱化农产品滞销事件危害,提出农产品滞销风险等级评估方法.首先,搜集近3年来发生的农产品滞销较大事件209起,分析确定农产品滞销风险等级评价指标体系.其次,考虑到决策过程的复杂性和不确定,提出三角模糊数的层次分析法确定评价指标权重.将农产品滞销风险划分为五个等级,构建各等级的标准模糊状态向量,利用模糊模式识别法计算农产品与等级标准模糊状态向量之间的贴近度.然后,基于权重和贴进度建立农产品滞销风险等级决策模型.最后,实例和对比分析研究验证了基于三角模糊数的层次分析法和模糊模式识别的农产品滞销风险等级评估模型的有效性和可行性.In order to effectively warn and weaken the hazards of slow-moving agricultural products, a method for assessing the level of unsalable agricultural products is proposed. First, collect 209 large-scale unsalable agricultural products in the past three years, and analyze and determine the evaluation index system for agricultural products' slow-moving risk levels. Secondly, considering the complexity and uncertainty of the decision process, the hierarchical analysis method of triangular fuzzy numbers is proposed to determine the weight of evaluation indicators. The risk of unsalable agricult ural products is divided into five grades, and the standard fuzzy state vector of each grade is constructed. The fuzzy pattern recognition method is used to calculate the closeness between the agricultural product and the grade standard fuzzy state vector. Then, based on the weight and the progress of the posting, the decision model of the agricultural product slow-moving risk level is established. Finally, an example and comparative analysis study validate the validity and feasibility of the agricultural product slow-moving risk rating model based on the triangular fuzzy number-based analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy pattern recognition.

关 键 词：农产品滞销 层次分析法 三角模糊数 等级评估 模糊模式识别 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] O159[理学—数学]