江苏淮北地区春季旱情的气象影响因子分析  

Meteorological Factors Affecting Spring Drought in Huaibei Area of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：沈雨珺 朱坚[2] SHEN Yu-jun;ZHU Jian(College of Water Science, Beijing Normal University? Beijing 100875, China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2019年第9期6-9,132,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0601504,2016YFA0600701);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2017B10114)

摘　　要：鉴于江苏省淮北地区常常出现连续枯水年组,是我国干旱最为频发和灾害损失最为严重的区域之一。基于江苏淮北地区1961~2012年11站降水资料,利用流域年和季降水距平百分率指数,分析了江苏淮北地区近52年旱情特征,并选取大气环流指数,进一步探讨了江苏淮北地区春季干旱的主要影响因子。结果表明,1961~2012年江苏淮北地区春季降水距平百分率呈弱的下降趋势,自2000年以来,春季是重旱最多的季节;1月北美区极涡面积指数对淮北地区重大干旱事件有显著影响,即当影响冷空气活动的极涡较弱时,易于引起淮北地区的严重干旱甚至特旱;1月北美区极涡面积指数减小时,春季西风急流加强,位于急流左后方的淮北地区下沉气流加强,进而降水减少引发干旱。The year-to-year droughts have frequently suffered from Huaibei region of Jiangsu Province.In this study,based on the 11 station precipitation data in Huaibei region of Jiangsu Province during the period of 1961 to 2012,the variation of the drought in recently 52 years have been investigated by annual and seasonal precipitation anomaly percentage index.The atmospheric circulation index is chosen to discuss the main factors affecting the spring drought in Huaibei region of Jiangsu Province.The results show that the spring precipitation anomaly percentage shows a weak decreasing trend.In particular,spring is the season with the most severe drought since 2000.North American Polar Vortex Area Index in January has significant impacts on the major drought and flood events in Huaibei area.As the polar vortex is weak,the severe drought or even extreme drought would easily occur in Huaibei.Associated with the reduction of North American Polar Vortex Area Index in January,the East Asian supercritical flow would increase and therefore strengthen the downward motion and suppress precipitation.

关 键 词：江苏淮北 干旱指数 极端干旱 气象因子 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]