面向BOP群体的政策诱导农机扩散研究——基于Agent建模方法  

Research on Policy Induced Diffusion of Agri-machinery for BOP Groups——via Agent-based Simulation

作　　者：童洪志[1,2] 刘伟 Tong Hongzhi;Liu Wei(School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030;College of Business Administration, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Wanzhou 404100)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]重庆三峡学院工商管理学院,万州404100

出　　处：《管理评论》2019年第8期260-276,共17页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71372139)

摘　　要：BOP战略为全球贫困问题治理提供了新的思路,在该战略中,采用有效政策确保BOP群体采纳新产品或服务至关重要。本文以小型农机为对象,运用基于Agent建模方法建立了农户采纳模型,探索市场自由度、信息政策、购置补贴政策及信息与补贴政策组合等干预措施在垄断与竞争两类市场结构情景中对BOP群体农机采纳速度和采纳水平的影响,并从政策干预类型、目标、时间等三个方面来认识诱导农机扩散过程。实验结果表明:政策干预有利于刺激BOP群体对农机装备的采纳,但在两类市场结构情景中政策刺激发挥的效果有所不同。同一政策对不同BOP目标群体并非有效,最适合的干预政策取决于政策目标。信息政策有利于提高采纳速度,但扩散水平在垄断市场并非有效;购置补贴政策有利于提升采纳速度和水平,但同时也增加了政策成本;市场结构是关键,垄断市场中政策干预有利于垄断者,而加强竞争可提升扩散效果和效率。在自由化竞争市场中,信息和补贴政策的联合干预措施可获得协同效应,且干预时间早有利于政策发挥有效性。BOP strategy provides a new way for governance of global poverty. In this strategy,it is essential to take effective policies to ensure the adoption of new products or services. By taking small machine as an example,this paper establishes an agent-based model of adoption to explore the influence of market degree of freedom,information policy,purchase subsidy policy and combination of information and subsidy policy on the adoption rate and level of new products of BOP group via simulation in the two kinds of market structure of monopoly and competition. And,it is conducive for us to understand the dynamic process of induced diffusion from three aspects: intervention types,object and time. Results show that policy intervention is conducive to stimulating BOP groups to adopt agri-machinery equipment,but the effect of policy stimulus is different in the two types of market structure. The same policy is not effective for different BOP target groups. The best-suited intervention depends on the policy’s objectives. Information policy can speed up adoption,but the diffusion level is ineffective in monopolies. Subsidy policy can boost speed and level,but increase costs of policy as well. Market structure is critical: policy interventions in closed market primarily favor monopolists,while strengthening competition promotes effectiveness and efficiency of diffusion. The joint intervention of information and subsidy policy can obtain synergy effect in the free competitive market,and early intervention is conducive to the effectiveness of the policy.

关 键 词：诱导扩散 BOP群体 AGENT模型 农机采纳 政策选择 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]