中澳、中韩FTA对我国经济、贸易和产业的影响研究  

A Study of the Impact of China-Australia FTA and China-Korea FTA on China’s Economy, Trade and Industry

作　　者：赵金龙[1] 赵静媛 杨帆 ZHAO Jin-long;ZHAO Jing-yuan;YANG Fan(School of Economy, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China;Research Institute, CITIC Futures, Shanghai 200120, China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,上海200444 [2]中信期货有限公司研究院,上海200120

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第5期78-92,共15页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13CJY002)

摘　　要：基于GTAP模型,结合资本累积模型和全要素技术进步效应,可分析中澳和中韩FTA对我国经济、贸易和产业的潜在影响。研究发现:中澳FTA和中韩FTA预期将增加我国福利、GDP和外贸,而且两个FTA的整体经济效应大于个体FTA效应;中韩FTA对我国的经贸促进效应预期将显著大于中澳FTA;中澳和中韩 FTA的贸易开放预期将提高我国的技术进步,将对提高我国经济福利做出最大贡献。此外,中澳和中韩FTA的实施将使得我国制造业产出和附加值普遍受益,部分农业部门的产出预计将遭受不同程度的负面冲击。China-Australia FTA and China-Korea FTA have profound impact on China’s economy, trade and industry. The paper is aimed to analyze their potential impact on the basis of GTAP model while taking into consideration of capital accumulation model and total factor productivity effect. The results reveal that China-Korea FTA and China-Australia FTA are expected to increase China’s welfare, GDP and foreign trade;the overall economic effect of the two FTAs’ is more than the sum of the individual’s;China-Korea FTA’s potential effect on promoting China’s economy and trade is significantly greater than that of China-Australia FTA;and the expectation of open trade from China-Australia FTA and China-Korea FTA will improve China’s technological progress, thus making the greatest contribution to China’s economic welfare. In addition, both the output and the added-value of all China’s manufacturing sectors would benefit from the implementation of the two FTAs, while the output of some agriculture sectors is expected to suffer from the negative impact to varying extents.

关 键 词：中澳 FTA 中韩 FTA GTAP 贸易自由化 贸易关系 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]