“一带一路”背景下基于综合集成算法的中国企业对外直接投资风险评价研究——以H公司为例  

Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises’ OFDI Based on Algorithm under the Background of “Belt and Road” Initiative——H Company as an Example

作　　者：黄娟[1] 夏楚雪 HUANG Juan;XIA Chuxue

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《江汉大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第5期61-74,127,共15页Journal of Jianghan University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国企业对外投资风险防控研究”(17BJY029)

摘　　要："一带一路"建设开启了中国企业对外直接投资的新纪元,然而面对日益复杂的投资环境,能否准确识别、科学评价和有效应对风险深刻影响着企业对外直接投资的成败。本文构建了以外源性风险、内生性风险和过程性风险为核心,且动态评价我国企业对外直接投资风险的分析框架,基于对H公司的问卷调查,运用综合集成算法(DHGF),多维评价"一带一路"背景下H公司对外直接投资风险水平。研究结果表明:"一带一路"背景下,H公司作为我国企业对外直接投资的典型代表,其面临的对外直接投资风险稍有下降,但仍处于高风险区域,企业亟须分类防控各层级风险。The"Belt and Road"initiative has opened a new era for Chinese enterprises'outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). However,in face of the increasingly complex investment environment,whether Chinese enterprises can accurately identify,scientifically evaluate and effectively cope with risks has a profound impact on their OFDI success or failure. This paper constructs an analysis framework for exogenous,endogenous and process risks,and dynamically assesses the risk of Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment. Based on a questionnaire survey of H Company and using the DHGF integrated algorithm,the paper makes a multidimensional evaluation of the risk level of H's foreign direct investment in the context of"Belt and Road". The results show that H Company,as a typical representative of Chinese enterprises,has a slight decline in the risk of foreign direct investment,but it is still in the high-risk category,so it need to prevent and control various risks at all levels.

关 键 词："一带一路" 对外直接投资 投资风险评价 综合集成算法 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]