经济政策取向与新兴民主的稳固  

Economic Orientation and Democratic Consolidation in New Democracies

作　　者：刘瑜 Liu Yu

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院政治学系

出　　处：《探索与争鸣》2019年第8期170-191,200,共23页Exploration and Free Views

基　　金：教育部人文社科一般项目(20135000370)

摘　　要：为什么有些新兴民主国家走向了民主稳固,而另一些则始终政治动荡甚至民主崩溃?各种解释中,经济政策的取向是一个重要维度。对于诸多新兴民主国家,温和的经济自由主义有利于民主稳固,而经济民粹主义取向是民主动荡或崩溃的重大助推力。通过数据与案例分析可以发现,诸多新兴民主国家的经济政策取向具有民粹主义倾向,具体表现为三点:转型起点处缺乏经济自由、早熟的保护主义与福利主义、保护主义与福利主义覆水难收。一系列案例分析向我们展示了从经济民粹主义走向民主动荡或崩溃的两种逻辑:一方面,经济民粹主义损害经济绩效,从而影响民主的绩效合法性;另一方面,经济民粹主义的敌我话语恶化社会撕裂,从而影响民主运行的政治文化基础。新兴民主国家不同于发达民主国家,经济水平有限以及民主质量不足使其格外容易成为经济民粹主义的俘虏,其民主体制更可能退化为追逐短期选票最大化,而不是长期发展最大化的恩惠-庇护主义。For many new democracies, mild economic liberalism leads to democratic consolidation, and economic populism of various types leads to the other direction. First, through data and case analyses, it is demonstrated that many new democracies are trapped in economic populism, indicated by three characteristics: low economic freedom as the initial condition of transition, pre-mature welfarism and protectionism as the policy choice, and extreme difficulties in rolling back welfarism and protectionism. Second, it is illustrated how economic populism leads to democratic crises: on one hand, it hurts economic performance, thus hurting "performance legitimacy" of democracy;on the other hand, the "class struggle" discourse embedded in economic populism drives political polarization. Particularly, it is emphasized that new democracies are different from old democracies: low level of development and weak institutions of democracies make them particularly vulnerable to the temptations of economic populism.

关 键 词：新兴民主 经济民粹主义 经济自由度 民主稳固 民主危机 第三波民主化 

分 类 号：D621[政治法律—政治学] F113[政治法律—中外政治制度]