产业转型与就业结构调整的趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of Industrial Transformation’s Impact on Employment Demand and Skill Preference

作　　者：宋锦[1] 李曦晨 Song Jin;Li Xichen(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2019年第10期38-57,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“制造业升级对中国就业和收入分配格局的影响研究”（18BJL129）的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:分析我国行业固定资产投资与就业和技能结构的匹配变化,检验产业转型的就业影响趋势。研究方法:采用OLS模型分析宏观数据、Probit模型分析微观数据考察行业投资的就业需求变化以及时期间、地区间差异,并使用Heckman两阶段模型进行稳健性检验。研究发现:我国固定资产投资深化破坏低技能岗位,其破坏速度是对高技能岗位创造速度的二倍,这种影响在2008年后才清晰地表现出来;制造业经历了低技能劳动力依赖到资本替代就业,再到替代速度放缓的过程,东部地区制造业发展和转型明显快于中西部地区;服务业对就业的创造能力近年来持续下降,且不同行业的就业技能需求有显著差异;批发零售和住宿餐饮业是吸纳制造业转移出的劳动力的主要部门,其就业吸纳速度与制造业的资本替代就业速度基本相当。研究创新:跨时期分析了就业结构和技能需求在各行业的发展变化,综合考察了产业转型过程中的就业结构转型。研究价值:为应对产业转型中的就业问题提供经验依据,也为下一步考察新时期人工智能发展等因素的就业影响提供基本事实。Research Objectives: Analyzing the changes of matching between fixed asset investment and employment volume and skill structure in China,to examine industrial transformation's impact on employment. Research Methods: Using OLS model to analyze macro data and Probit model to analyze micro data to examine the employment demand variation and the differences among periods and regions;using Heckman two-stage model to test the robustness. Research Findings: Intensifying fixed assets investment has been destroying low-skilled jobs,and the speed is twice as fast as that of creating high-skilled jobs;the trend becomes obvious after 2008. Manufacturing industry has experienced the process of low-skilled labor intensive,capital replacing employment,and slowing down of the replacement. The trend is more obvious in the eastern region than the central and western regions. The job creation ability of service industry has been declining in recent years,and the skill preference differs in different industries. Wholesale,retail and residential catering is the main sector that absorbs the labor force transferred from the manufacturing industry,and its employment absorption rate is about the same as that of capital-employment replacing rate in the manufacturing industry. Research Innovations: This paper analyzes the employment structure transformation in the process of industrial transformation in a comprehensive way. Research Value: The paper provides empirical reference for dealing with the employment problems in the industrial transformation,and provides baseline facts for investigating the employment impact of the development of artificial intelligence and other factors in the new era.

关 键 词：固定资产投资 技能偏好 就业结构转型 

分 类 号：F404.2[经济管理—产业经济]