贸易摩擦与日韩关系新变局  

The Trade Dispute as an Emerging Peril in Japan-ROK Relations

作　　者：李婷婷[1] Li Tingting

机构地区：[1]北京大学外国语学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2019年第8期1-11,66,共12页

摘　　要：日韩贸易摩擦始于日本单方面加强对韩出口管制。日方决意对韩采取强硬措施的直接原因触发于韩国大法院的强征劳工索赔案判决,根本原因则体现了地区秩序重组背景下两国调整双边关系和地区战略的博弈,日本政策手段的选择上包含对政策有效性、风险性和战略性的多重考量。日韩对贸易摩擦与历史问题是挂钩还是双轨处理的原则上存在根本差异,对政策合理性的辩论也未能缩小分歧,但韩国政府的全方位外交和国内应对有助于在一定程度上降低摩擦的冲击预期。两国摩擦短期恐难消解,美国能否积极调解是影响其近期走向的关键。The Japan-ROK trade dispute began as Japan unilaterally enhanced its export control against South Korea. The proximate cause for Japan's move is triggered off by the South Korea Supreme Court's decision on colonial -era forced labor claims,whereas the fundamental cause has to do with the two sides'conflicting pursuits to reshape mutual relations and their respective regional strategies amid the ongoing reconfiguration of regional order in Northeast Asia.Meanwhile,Japan's choice to put pressure on South Korea via export control,as opposed to other policy options,reflects a comprehensive consideration of policy effectiveness,risk,and strategic implications.The two sides took opposite positions regarding the fundamental principle of whether to connect or separate trade dispute and historical issues,and their policy debates did not help ease the situation except for stirring up more contradictions. Nonetheless,the South Korean government made vigorous efforts to appeal for international support and develop domestic solutions,which could to some extent help relieve the negative effects.It will be hard for the two governments to achieve a quick resolution to the trade dispute,but greater United States involvement might become a key accelerator to facilitate reconciliation.

关 键 词：日韩关系 贸易摩擦 出口管制 强征劳工 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] D831.3[经济管理—产业经济] D831.26[政治法律—政治学]