北京市机构养老需求研究  

Demand for Pension Institutions in Beijing

作　　者：林雷 刘黎明[2] LIN Lei;LIU Liming(School of Public Finance and Taxation, Captital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China;School of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院,北京100070 [2]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070

出　　处：《人口与经济》2019年第5期94-105,共12页Population & Economics

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目“优化行业结构缓解大城市病模型方法研究”(9172003)

摘　　要：以2012年北京市户籍人口数据为基础,结合中国人寿保险经验生命表(2010—2013)建立人口精算模型,测算了2017—2030年北京市老年人口年龄结构。再结合北京市政府的“9064”规划和上海市民政局相关规定,测算出2017—2030年北京市机构养老的需求床位数、机构养老医护人员和护理员的需求情况。结果显示到2030年北京市机构养老床位需求量将达到220596张,机构养老护理人员的需求量将达到49838人,养老医护人员4412人。与此同时,根据测算数据以及北京市机构养老服务存在的突出问题,提出要加快养老服务体系建设,多途径、多渠道培养养老护理人才,按照老年人口分布及身体健康类型合理规划养老机构建设,完善社会保障体系和提高护理人员薪资待遇等建议。Based on the 2012 Beijing household registration population data, combined with the China Life Insurance Experience Life Table (2010-2013), the population actuarial model was established, and the age structure of the elderly population in Beijing from 2013 to 2030 was measured. Combined with the Beijing Municipal Government’ s “9064” plan and the relevant provisions of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, the demand for the number of beds for institutional pensions, institutional care workers and caregivers in Beijing from 2017 to 2030 will be calculated. The results show that by 2030, the number of institutional beds in Beijing will reach 220596, the demand for institutional nursing staff will reach 49838, and the number of elderly medical staff will be 4412. At the same time, based on the measured data and the outstanding problems of the institutional pension service in Beijing, it is proposed that the construction of the elderly service system should be accelerated, the nursing talents should be cultivated in multiple ways, the elderly care institution should be planned according to the distribution of the elderly population and physical conditions. The government should also improve the social seccurity system and raise the salary and treatment of nursing staff.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口结构 寿险精算 机构养老 需求测算 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]