城镇化背景下养老保险与经济发展关系的思考  

Thoughts on the Relationship between Endowment Insurance and Economic Development under the Background of Urbanization

作　　者：许莉[1] 尹智伶 袁曙 XU Li;YIN Zhiling;YUAN Shu(School of Finance,Jiangxi Normoal University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330022,China;Jiangxi Wateri Resources Institufe,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学财政金融学院,江西南昌330022 [2]江西水利职业学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2019年第5期41-47,共7页Research of Finance and Education

基　　金：江西省社会科学规划项目“基于分层需求的农村社会养老服务供给问题研究”(17YJ08)

摘　　要：社会基本养老保险制度是社会保障体系特别重要的一环。为了研究城镇化背景下养老保险与经济发展之间的关系,将养老保险支出、人均GDP、城镇化水平与老年人口比重这四个变量建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,对以上四个变量之间的影响关系和影响程度进行深入探讨。研究结果表明:经济发展和城镇化都能促进养老保险的支出,相对于城镇化,经济发展对于养老保险支出的影响程度更大。因此,养老保险改革制度应与我国经济发展步伐相适应,同时要在城镇化进程中深化社会保障改革,使得养老保险支出与城镇化进程相互协调。The social basic endowment insurance system is a particularly important part of the social security system.In order to study the relationship between endowment insurance and economic development in the context of urbanization,a VAR model is established by using four variables:endowment insurance expenditure,per GDP,urbanization level and the proportion of the elderly population,using impulse response and variance decomposition methods.The relationship and degree of influence between the above four variables are discussed in depth.The research results show that both economic development and urbanization can promote the expenditure of endowment insurance.Compared with urbanization,economic development has a greater impact on endowment insurance expenditure.Therefore,the endowment insurance reform system should be compatible with the pace of China’s economic development.At the same time,it is necessary to deepen the social security reform in the process of urbanization,so that the endowment insurance expenditure and the urbanization process are coordinated.

关 键 词：养老保险 城镇化 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]