船舶溢油事故态势演化风险排序  

Risk Prioritization of Ship Oil Spill Accident in Terms of Situation Evolution

作　　者：王海燕[1] 陈洁 WANG Haiyan;CHEN Jie(School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院

出　　处：《中国航海》2019年第3期89-94,共6页Navigation of China

摘　　要：为降低溢油事故对近岸水域造成的影响,采用科学方法识别溢油事故发生后系统可能存在的各种风险和演化态势,并通过风险排序找出船舶溢油事故应急处置的重点。分析船舶溢油事故发生后人、机、环境、管理系统中影响溢油事故态势发展的关键因素,识别其中可能存在的风险。采用改进的(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)法,考虑风险指标的模糊性和不确定性,将模糊集与TOPSIS法相结合,建立船舶溢油事故态势演化风险排序模型。实例验证排序模型的实用性,为提高溢油应急处置效率,降低溢油事故后果提供理论依据。To reduce the impact of ship oil spill accident on offshore waters it is necessary to use scientific methods to identify the situation evolution and prioritize the risks of the accident. Based on the analysis of the key factors affecting the situation evolution of oil spill accident in the man-machine-environment-management system, the risks are identified. The fuzzy set and TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method are combined to establish a risk prioritization model to deal with the ambiguity and uncertainty of risk indicators. An example is given to demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method. It is suggested to improve the efficiency of oil spill emergency disposal and to reduce the consequences of oil spill accidents.

关 键 词：TOPSIS 船舶 溢油 态势演化 风险排序 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程] U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]