城市二手房个户交易价格的预测  

Prediction of Individual Transaction Price of Urban Second-Hand Houses

作　　者：张学新 吴凯泽 ZHANG Xuexin;WU Kaize(School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei Engineering University, Xiaogan, Hubei 432000, China;Wuhan Foreign Languages School, Wuhan, Hubei 430022,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工程学院数学与统计学院,湖北孝感432000 [2]武汉市外国语学校,湖北武汉430022

出　　处：《经济数学》2019年第3期71-78,共8页Journal of Quantitative Economics

摘　　要：基于武汉市二手房中介发布的数据,用一种新线性模型测度了二手房个体交易价格及首付额的主要影响因素.依据二手房价的分布,按二手房所在行政区域分段建立了价格预测模型,同时给出了二手房交易价格等级的推理规则.统计学检验表明,首付额预测模型性能优良,可用于实际二手房个户交易价格的预测.In this paper, a new linear model was used to measure the main factors that affect the individual transaction price and the down payment on a second-hand house, based on the second-hand house data obtained from some property agencies in Wuhan. in terms of the distribution of second-hand housing price, some prediction models were established piecewise corresponding to the administrative region in which second-hand houses are located, meanwhile, the inference rule model for the classification level of second-hand housing transaction price was discussed. Prediction models of down payment were excellent from the point of view of statistical test, and can be used to forecast the transaction price of real second-hand housing.

关 键 词：价格学 二手房价格预测 新线性模型 因素重要度 推理规则 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]