空气污染物的时空演化及社会经济驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Socio-economic Drivers of Primary Air Pollutants from Energy Consumption in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：孙涵[1,2,3] 胡雪原[1] 聂飞飞 SUN Han;HU Xueyuan;NIE Feifei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Research Center of Resource andEnvironmental Economics,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Key Laboratory of Strategy,Ministry of Natural Resources,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]自然资源部国土资源战略研究重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国环境管理》2019年第4期71-78,共8页Chinese Journal of Environmental Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城市群雾霾污染对公共健康影响的空间效应和治理策略研究”（17BJY063）;教育部人文社科基金项目“能源消费对空气污染的公共健康效应研究：基于空间相关性分析”（15YJC790091）;中国地质大学(武汉)青年学者“摇篮计划”基金项目“中国典型城市群空气污染对公共健康影响的空间效应研究”(CUGW17401)

摘　　要：本文以2006-2015年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析该地区不同部门因能源消费而产生的典型污染物排放量,然后利用LMDI模型,对空气污染进行社会经济驱动因素分析。结果表明:该地区CO2、SO2、PM2.5与PM10等空气污染物排放量均呈现先快速增长后缓慢减少的趋势,排放的峰值多出现在了2013年,而NOx则一直保持增长的趋势。其中,电力与工业部门是空气污染物的主要排放源,但对排放量贡献呈减少趋势,生活部门与交通部门污染物排放量则逐步增长,尤其是对PM2.5与PM10排放量的贡献不可忽视。人口与经济增长对污染物排放量起到了正向拉动作用,经济因素的驱动作用最为明显,其效应值呈现先小幅增加后大幅下降的趋势,能源效率与能源结构有抑制作用,其对污染物排放的效应值仅次于经济因素,而能源结构变化的效应很小。The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was taken as the research object to analyze the emissions of typical pollutants caused by energy consumption of difference sectors during 2006 to 2015.And then the socio-economic drivers of air pollution emissions were analyzed based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI).The results showed that the emissions of CO2,SO2,PM10 and PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta showed a rapid growth and then slowly decreased,and the peak of emissions appeared in 2013,NOx kept growing.In terms of sectors,the electricity and industrial sectors were the main sources of air pollutants in the Yangtze River Delta,and the contribution to air pollution emissions was decreasing.The pollutant emissions from the civil and transportation sectors were gradually increasing,especially the contribution to emissions of PM2.5 and PM10 could not be ignored.The population and economy played a positive role in the growth of energy consumption and air pollution emissions.The driving force of economic factors was the most obvious,and its effect value showed a slight increase and then a sharp decline.The energy efficiency and energy structure had an inhibitory effect on the growth of energy consumption and air pollution emissions in the Yangtze River Delta.The effect value and the economic factor showed the same trend,and the effects of energy structure were very small.

关 键 词：长江三角洲 能源消耗 空气污染物排放 驱动因素 对数平均迪氏指数法 

分 类 号：X708[环境科学与工程—环境工程]