有限理性下秘书问题的一类满意解策略及仿真  

Simulation and Satisfying Policy of Secretary Problem in Bounded Rationality

作　　者：吴新林 涂火年[2] WU Xinlin;TU Huonian(School of Mathematics and Economics,Hubei University of Education,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Information and Statistics,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北第二师范学院数学与经济学院,武汉430205 [2]广西财经学院信息与统计学院,南宁530003

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2019年第5期941-945,共5页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：湖北省教育厅科学技术研究资助项目(Q20153002);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2015CFC883)

摘　　要：经典秘书问题中以完全理性假设为前提的最优解策略在现实应用中缺乏实际操作性。对经典秘书问题的理性假设进行了弱化,以决策者的有限理性为前提通过假定决策者不能对所有选项进行排序提出了解决秘书问题的一类满意解策略,并推导了获取满意选项的概率计算公式。最后,结合计算机仿真实验研究了获取满意选项的概率与截止阈值间的关系。研究结果可为经典秘书问题的扩展提供一定的理论参考。The optimal policies of the standard secretary problem are based on the hypothesis of complete rationality , which ignores the actual operability in reality.In this paper , the rationality hypothesis of the standard secretary problem was weakened , and a satisfying policy based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality was proposed.Besides , based on the premise of the bounded rationality of the decision maker , a kind of satisfactory solution strategy for solving secretarial problems was proposed by assuming that the decision maker cannot rank all the options , and the probability formula for obtaining satisfactory options was deduced.Moreover , the formula of probability calculation of the decision - maker to choose the satisfactory item was derived.Furthermore , the relationships between the probability of choosing the satisfactory item and the cutoff threshold were studied by conducting computer simulation experiments.

关 键 词：有限理性 秘书问题 满意解 仿真 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]