创伤性颅内血肿保守治疗失败因素的分析以及预测模型的构建  

Analysis of failure factors of conservative treatment for traumatic intracranial hematoma and establishment of prediction model

作　　者：唐知己[1] 廖新艺[1] 张金石[1] 魏文金[1] Tang Zhiji;Liao Xinyi;Zhang Jinshi(The People's Hospital of Ganzhou City,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000)

机构地区：[1]赣州市人民医院

出　　处：《基层医学论坛》2019年第31期4451-4452,共2页The Medical Forum

基　　金：赣州市科技局指导科技计划项目(GZ2018ZSF232)

摘　　要：目的分析创伤性颅内血肿保守治疗失败的危险因素,构建预测模型。方法回顾我院闭合性颅脑损伤后颅内血肿采取保守治疗的患者204例,分析保守治疗失败的危险因素,利用Logistic回归方程构建预测模型。结果 Logistic回归分析表明入院期间有无缺氧、入院时GCS评分、存在多部位血肿为独立危险因素,依据危险因素构建预测模型P=1/[1+e∧(2.913X0+1.895X1+2.364X2-7.654)]。结论基于危险因素建立的预测模型可以早期简易、快捷地预测创伤性颅内血肿患者的病情进展,有利于提前干预。Objective To analyze the risk factors of failure in conservative treatment of traumatic intracranial hematoma and to establish a preoperative protocol measurement model.Methods Retrospective analysis of intracranial hematoma after closed craniocerebral injury.A systematic analysis of risk factors for failure of conservative treatment was performed in 204 patients.Logistic regression equation was used to construct the prediction model. Results Logistic regression analysis showed oxygen,GCS score at admission,presence of multiple hematomas were the independent risk factors. The model P=1/[1+e∧(2.913 X0+1.895 X1+2.364 X2-7.654)] conclusion was established based on risk factors.Conclusion The prediction model can predict the progress of the disease easily and quickly in the early stage,and facilitate the intervention in advance.

关 键 词：创伤性颅内血肿 保守治疗 失败 危险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R651.15[医药卫生—外科学]