中国经济增长与结构变迁的时变关系研究  

A Study on the Time-varying Relationship between China’s Economic Growth and Structural Change

作　　者：李瑞杰 Li Ruijie

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《江西社会科学》2019年第8期52-63,254,255,共14页Jiangxi Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国产能过剩测度、波动影响与供给侧结构性改革化解研究”(16BJY011);中国人民大学拔尖创新人才培育资助计划项目、中国人民大学经济学院精英计划项目

摘　　要：通过构建经济总量增长速度的部门离散系数,作为经济结构变迁系数,描绘中国经济结构变迁过程,并建立线性非时变参数方程,定量研究经济增长与结构变迁的相关特征,结果显示:二者存在显著正相关关系,但具有时变特征。进一步建立时变参数的状态空间方程,考察经济增长与结构变迁的时变关系特征,结果发现,1979—1997年二者相关关系处于低弹性、高波动的成长期;1998—2016年二者相关关系处于高弹性、平稳化的成熟期。中国经济新常态下,政府应努力恢复经济增长乐观态势,为结构调整提供宽松的弹性空间,实施更加"有为"的结构调整政策,加快产业结构高级演化。By constructing the coefficient of economic structural change, this paper describes the process of China's economic structural change, and establishes a linear non-time-varying parametric equation to quantitatively study the characteristics of economic growth and structural change. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between them, but with time-varying characteristics. The state space equation of time-varying parameters is further established to investigate the time - varying relationship between economic growth and structural change. The results show that the corre-lation between them is in the growth period of low elasticity and high fluctuation from 1979 to 1997, and in the mature period of high elasticity and stabilization from 1998 to 2016. Under the new normal of China’s economy, the government should strive to restore the optimistic situation of economic growth, provide flexible space for structural adjustment, implement more promising structural adjust-ment policies, and accelerate the advanced evolution of industrial structure.

关 键 词：经济增长 经济结构变迁 时变关系 状态空间方程 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]