人民币贬值预期下的“通缩效应”与中美贸易余额  

The “Deflation Effect” and Sino-US Trade Balance under the Expectation of RMB Devaluation

作　　者：梁立俊 龚雷豫 吴帆 LIANG Li-jun;GONG Lei-yu;WU Fan

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院 [2]哈尔滨工业大学经济学系 [3]广东外语外贸大学

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2019年第9期50-62,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部创新团队发展计划滚动支持项目(IRT_17R26)

摘　　要：2015年8月11日中国人民银行对人民币汇率的形成机制进行改革,随后人民币持续贬值,但中美贸易余额不升反降。文章在马歇尔-勒纳条件成立的前提下,引入汇率预期以及贸易商(或消费者)行为变化等因素,提出并验证“通缩效应”,试图解释人民币贬值,但中美贸易余额没有增加的现象。文章结论是:人民币持续贬值不能增加贸易余额,原因是人民币持续贬值使中国出口商品价格可预期的连续下降,由此产生通缩效应,导致美国进口商推迟进口中国商品。政策当局在操作上应该加强人民币汇率的预期管理,避免趋势性的小幅度贬值产生的“通缩效应”,长期内应该通过改革使人民币汇率形成机制市场化。The People’s Bank of China introduced a new mechanism of RMB exchange rate on August 11^th,2015.Subsequently,the currency depreciates continuously,while Sino-US trade balance doesn't increase but deceases.On the premise of the establishment of Marshall-Lerner condition,this paper introduces the factors including exchange rate expectation and behavior changes of traders(or consumers),and puts forward and verifies the “deflation effect” to explain the above contradictory phenomenon.The paper concludes that why the devaluation of RMB fails to increase trade balance is that the continuous devaluation of RMB leads to the decline of the expected price of China's export products and thus brings about the deflation effect and the postponement of US importers to import China's products.The policy authority should strengthen the expectation management of RMB to avoid the “deflation effect” caused by the moderate devaluation with tendency and promote the marketization of RMB exchange rate regime through reform in the long run.

关 键 词：人民币贬值预期 “通缩效应” 中美贸易余额 ARDL模型 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学] F82