甘肃省2010-2016年出生的非综合征性唇腭裂患者时空分布特征  

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016

作　　者：雷杰 袁敬炎 沈喜[1] 赵思萱 刘瑞敏 杨兰 杜洪亮 谢小冬[1] LEI Jie;YUAN Jing-yan;SHEN Xi;ZHAO Si-xuan;LIU Rui-min;YANG Lan;DU Hong-liang;XIE Xiao-dong(Life Science School of Lanzhou University , Lanzhou 730000, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学生命科学学院

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2019年第9期1102-1106,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家基础科学人才培养基金(J1210077,J1210033,J1103502);教育部“质量工程”项目(222-860617);兰州大学大学生创新创业项目(20180180028)~~

摘　　要：目的探讨甘肃省2010-2016年出生的非综合征性唇腭裂(non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate, NSCLP)的时空分布特征并建立预测模型,为甘肃省NSCLP的防控工作提供依据。方法采用空间流行病学研究方法及地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)进行专题制图、空间自相关分析、高/低聚类分析、热点分析和克里金(Kirging)插值预测。结果甘肃省2010-2016年各年度89个县区NSCLP发病率聚集趋势为东南高、西北低;2010-2016年甘肃省NSCLP累积发病率的空间分布呈现空间正相关(Moran’I=0.274,Z=7.814,P<0.001),且聚集类型为高聚类(Getis Gi=0.000 003,Z=4.381,P<0.001),存在22个发病热点县区。Kirging插值预测结果显示NSCLP主要流行趋势由甘肃的陇东往陇西、陇南方向延伸。结论甘肃省2010-2016年NSCLP地理分布呈现空间正相关,主要聚集类型为高-高聚集,高聚集区集中在甘肃陇东、陇西和陇南区域,需要重点防控。Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate(NSCLP) who born in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016, and to establish a predictive model for developing the strategies for the prevention and control of NSCLP. Methods Spatial epidemiological research method and geographical information systems(GIS) were used to conduct thematic mapping, spatial correlation analysis, high/low clustering analysis, hotspot analysis and Kirging interpolation prediction for NSCLP patients in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016. Results From 2010 to 2016, the aggregation trend of NSCLP incidence in 89 counties in Gansu Province was different obviously, the southeast area was high and the northwest was low. Based on the data of the cumulative incidence of NSCLP from 2010 to 2016 in Gansu, the spatial distribution of NSCLP presented positive spatial correlation(Moran’I=0.274,Z=7.814,P<0.001) and the aggregation type was high-high cluster(Getis Gi=0.000 003,Z=4.381,P<0.001), with 22 hot spots. The Kirging interpolation prediction results showed that the main prevalence trend of NSCLP in Gansu extended from Longdong to Longxi and Longnan areas. Conclusions The geographical distribution of NSCLP had a positive spatial correlation and a high-high aggregation type in Gansu from 2010 to 2016. The high aggregation area is concentrated in Longdong, Longxi and Longnan of Gansu, which suggest that it is essential to focus on prevention and control in these areas.

关 键 词：非综合征性唇腭裂 地理信息系统 时空聚类分析 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]