粘性信息会增强中国经济增长的波动性吗  

Will Sticky Information Enhance the Volatility of China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：赵新伟 赵云君 ZHAO Xin-wei;ZHAO Yun-jun(School of Economics,Northwest University of Political Science and Law,Xi’an 710122,China)

机构地区：[1]西北政法大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2019年第9期42-59,共18页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：本文从理论与实证两个方面论证了粘性信息定价模型、其在中国的适用性以及粘性信息模型对中国宏观经济变量的影响。通过分析与论证发现:一是中国目前的商品市场定价模式为双粘性模型,而非单纯的粘性价格与粘性信息定价模型;与单纯的粘性价格与粘性信息以及弹性价格模型相比,双粘性模型与中国目前的经济数据拟合效果更好,可以更好地描述中国商品市场的价格确定过程。二是从四种价格定价模式对经济变量的影响看,对宏观经济变量影响最大的是双粘性模型,影响最小的是弹性价格模型;无论是从变量的响应时间,还是变量的波动幅度,双粘性模型对经济变量的影响都要大于其他三种价格确定模型对经济变量的影响,说明粘性价格与粘性信息对经济变量的影响具有累积效应。此外,受冲击后,粘性价格模型下变量的波动方向与粘性信息模型下变量的波动方向具有趋同性,粘性价格与粘性信息模型对经济变量的影响是一致的。三是双粘性价格框架下经济主体的福利损失大于单纯的粘性价格与粘性信息框架下经济主体的福利损失。This paper demonstrates the applicability of sticky information pricing model in China and the influence of sticky information model on Chinese macroeconomic variables from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Through analysis and demonstration, it is found that: first, the current commodity market pricing model in China is a double sticky model, rather than a simple sticky price and sticky information pricing model. Compared with the simple sticky price and sticky information and elastic price model, the double sticky model has better fitting effect with the current economic data of China, and can better describe the price determination process of Chinese commodity market. Secondly, from the influence of the four price pricing models on the economic variables, the double stickiness model has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic variables, and the elastic price model has the least influence. Whether from the response time of the variables or the fluctuation amplitude of the variables, the influence of the double stickiness model on the economic variables is greater than that of the other three price determination model models on the economic variables. The influence of sticky price and sticky information on economic variables has cumulative effect. In addition, after the impact, the fluctuation direction of the variable under the sticky price model is the same as that of the variable under the sticky information model, so the influence of the sticky price and the sticky information model on the economic variables is consistent. Thirdly, the welfare loss of the economic subject under the framework of double sticky price is greater than that of the economic subject under the framework of simple sticky price and sticky information.

关 键 词：粘性信息 双粘性模型 福利损失 经济波动 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]