CMIP6检测归因模式比较计划(DAMIP)概况与评述  

Short commentary on CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project(DAMIP)

作　　者：钱诚[1,2] 张文霞 QIAN Cheng;ZHANG Wen-Xia(Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室(RCE-TEA),中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京100029

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2019年第5期469-475,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507701);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41675093)

摘　　要：气候变化的检测归因是历次IPCC评估报告的重要组成部分。检测归因的目标是检测并量化由外强迫引起的变化,识别人为和自然强迫对气候变化的相对贡献。有助于全面评估气候系统是如何受人类活动影响的,所得结论对未来气候变化预估的信度而言至关重要。检测归因模式比较计划(DAMIP)是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的一个子计划,共包含3个级别、多达14组不同强迫驱动下的试验。文中概述其科学背景、试验设计、参与模式情况,并评述该计划的意义、期待的产出以及中国的机遇和贡献,以期使读者迅速了解相关要点和进展,为利用这些模式模拟试验数据开展检测归因研究提供必要的参考。Detection and attribution(D&A)of climate change was an important chapter of every assessment report of IPCC.The aim of D&A is to detect externally forced changes,and to assess the relative contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to observed climate changes.It provides a comprehensive understanding on how the climate system is affected by human influences.Its conclusions strongly enhance the confidence in our ability to project future climate change.The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project(DAMIP)is a part of the CMIP6.It contains three tiers of simulations,which cover 14 types of experiment driven by various forcings.This paper overviews the scientific background,experimental design,and involved models in the DAMIP of CMIP6.Remarks on the significance,expected outputs,and opportunity and contribution of China are also provided.We hope this paper can facilitate readers to quickly master the key information and progresses of this project and serve as a guideline for the D&A research using the model-simulated outputs from this project in the future.

关 键 词：检测归因模式比较计划(DAMIP) CMIP6 检测归因 观测约束 气候变化 预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]