中俄利益互助型战略合作的形成机制及特征——兼析其在美国“南海航行自由”问题上的表现  

The Formation Mechanism and Characteristics of Sino-Russian Mutually Beneficial Strategic Cooperation: also on its Manifestation on “Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea”

作　　者：初智勇[1] Chu Zhiyong

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省社会科学院政治学所

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2019年第4期58-93,共36页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“亚太地区对美国航行自由政策的认知及中国应对策略研究”(批准号:16BGJ044)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：从逻辑演绎角度来说,中俄战略合作从松散到紧密的程度变化,体现为在无合作和军事同盟之间的连续曲线。中俄美战略互动形成的国际权力和地缘政治的双重博弈结构,是中俄战略合作程度变化的关键影响因素,包括美国与中、俄之间的战略冲突和相互依赖,以及中俄之间的战略平行与分歧等。就当前及可预见的未来而言,中俄战略合作仍将处于利益交换状态,并将在中俄基于美国"航行自由"问题的互助过程中有所表现。在这种国际背景下,中国应努力消除俄罗斯的战略疑虑,强化两国之间的相互依赖,并使其向有利于中国的不对称结构转化,以减少双边利益互助过程中潜在的脆弱性和不确定性。同时应警惕中俄战略合作向军事同盟方向升级,以免对中国发展战略机遇期的延续产生破坏性影响。From the viewpoint of logical interpretation,Sino-Russian strategic cooperation,from loose to close,is embodied in a continuous curve from non-cooperation to military alliance.The dual game structure of international power and geopolitics,formed by China-Russia-U.S.strategic interaction,is key factor to the change of degree of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation,including their trilateral strategic conflicts and interdependence,as well as strategic parallelism and conflicts between China and Russia.For the present and foreseeable future,Sino-Russian strategic cooperation will remain exchanges of interests,and will be demonstrated in the process of mutual assistance between China and Russia based on their approaches to the United States'freedom of navigation.Against this international context,China should strive to dispel Russia' strategic doubts,strengthen their bilateral interdependence and transform it into an asymmetric structure in China' favor, so as to reduce potential vulnerabilities and uncertainties during their mutual assistance.At the same time,we should be wary of the upgrading of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation to the military alliance,so as to avoid destructive impacts on the continuation of the period of strategic opportunity for China.

关 键 词：中俄关系 中美俄关系 中俄战略合作 南海问题 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]