我国海外煤电投资项目的环境压力测试  

Environmental stress testing for China’s overseas coal power investment projects

作　　者：熊敏鹏[1] 杨晓文 袁家海[1,2] Xiong Minpeng;Yang Xiaowen;Yuan Jiahai(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University, Changping,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,North China Electric Power University,Changping,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]华北电力大学新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2019年第9期107-114,共8页China Coal

摘　　要：随着“一带一路”建设不断深入,我国电力企业在海外煤电投资项目呈加速态势,这些煤电项目的经济性会受到投资目的国市场风险和环境风险的影响。以印尼和越南为例,构建了环境压力测试工具来分析我国海外煤电投资项目对环境风险的敏感性。通过对市场、监管、环境风险等方面因素的考察,确定了煤价、利用小时数、汇率、碳税及环保要求5项压力测试因素,通过设定不同情景来观察企业价值和内部收益率(IRR)的变化。结果表明,印尼的煤电投资项目对汇率的变化最为敏感,越南的煤电项目对煤价变化最为敏感;此外,由于国家自主贡献(NDC)目标与环境保护的压力,如果“一带一路”国家后续加强环境监管,届时海外煤电投资项目的经济性将会大幅下降。The constantly deepen Chinese Belt and Road construction encouraged increased overseas investment in coal power projects.However,the economies of the projects were also influenced by market risks and external environmental risks of the countries of investment destination.In this paper,the approach of environmental stress testing was used to examine the sensibility of China's overseas coal power investment projects on environmental risks by focusing on two countries:Indonesia and Vietnam.Five key testing factors(i.e.,coal price,utilization hours,exchange rate,carbon tax,and environmental protection requirements)were determined first by examining the market,regulation and environmental risks.Then the changes in enterprise value and internal rate of return(IRR)were observed by testing different scenarios.The results showed that the coal power projects in Indonesia were most sensitive to exchange rate,while the coal projects in Vietnam were most sensitive to coal price;the pressure of nationally determined contributions(NDC)goals on environmental protection would push the Belt&Road countries to implement more stringent environmental regulation and reduce the economies of coal power projects.

关 键 词："一带一路"倡议 海外投资 煤电项目 环境压力测试 

分 类 号：TD-916[矿业工程] TD-953