基于LMDI和脱钩理论的我国生活用水影响因素研究  

Affecting factors for domestic water use in China based on LMDI and decoupling theory

作　　者：聂志萍[1] 吴梦芝 马海良 NIE Zhiping;WU Mengzhi;MA Hailiang(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Business Administration,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学企业管理学院,江苏常州213022

出　　处：《水利经济》2019年第5期11-15,26,77,共7页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41301620);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX18_0496);中央高校基本科研业务费(20191322814)

摘　　要：生活用水作为我国用水量的主要组成部分,是评价节水型城市的重要指标。基于我国2004-2017年各省份面板数据,先通过Kaya恒等式将生活用水分解为结构效应、技术效应、经济效应和人口效应4个方面,再利用LMDI方法分别探究每个效应对生活用水量的影响程度,最后引入脱钩弹性指标,进一步分析LMDI中效应程度最大的经济指标与生活用水的响应关系,结果表明:①技术的改进促进了生活用水的减少,而产业结构的改变,经济的增长,人口规模的扩大均推动了生活用水的增多。②相比于人口与结构,经济效应与技术效应的累计绝对值较大,即经济与技术为生活用水的主要驱动因素,而人口与结构是生活用水的辅助影响因素。③2004-2017年,生活用水与经济增长已实现进一步的脱钩关系,其中人口数量较少,经济发展程度较低的省份脱钩程度较高,而人口较多,水资源量丰富,经济发展程度较高的省份脱钩程度较低。As the major component of China's water consumption,the domestic water is the important index for evaluating water-saving cities. Based on the panel data of various provinces in China from 2004 to 2017, firstly, the Kaya identities are used to decompose the domestic water into four aspects: structural effect,technical effect,economic effect and population effect. Secondly,the LMDI method is used to explore the impact of the above four effects on the domestic water. Finally,the decoupling elastic index is introduced to further analyze the response relationship between the economic indices with the greatest degree of effects in LMDI and the domestic water. The results show that ①The improvement of technology has promoted the decrease in the domestic water consumption, and the change of industrial structure,economic development and population expansion all have promoted an increase in the domestic water use.②Compared with that of the population and structural effects,the cumulative absolute value of the economic and technical effects is larger,that is to say,the economic and technical effects are the main driving factors for the domestic water use,while the population and structural effects are the auxiliary influencing factors.③From 2004 to 2017,the domestic water consumption and economic growth have achieved further decoupling relationship. The provinces with small population and lower economic development level have achieved higher decoupled degree, and those provinces with more abundant population,water resources and higher economic development level have achieved less decoupled degree.

关 键 词：生活用水 LMDI 脱钩理论 影响因素 

分 类 号：P964[天文地球—自然地理学]