短距离下小汽车出行向自行车出行转移意向MIMIC模型  

Transition From Driving to Bicycling in Short-distance Travel Based on MIMIC Model

作　　者：舒诗楠 边扬 荣建 李爽[2] SHU Shinan;BIAN Yang;RONG Jian;LI Shuang(College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design, Beijing 100045, China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市交通学院,北京100124 [2]北京城市规划设计研究院,北京100045

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2019年第10期998-1008,共11页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61672067)

摘　　要：为系统研究心理潜在因素与外生因素对短距离下小汽车出行向自行车出行转移意向的影响,提出了转移意向多指标多原因(multiple indicators and multiple causes,MIMIC)模型.以计划行为理论为框架拓展潜在因素,研究外部障碍、个人障碍、骑行态度、骑行偏好、主观规范与转移意向潜在变量间的相互影响关系,并分析社会人口特征、出行特征、客观环境、小汽车限制措施等外生变量与潜在变量间的因果关系.结果表明:通过外部障碍、个人障碍、骑行偏好、骑行态度和主观规范能够有效解释小汽车出行向自行车出行转移意向,转移意向受到外部障碍、个人障碍、骑行偏好和主观规范的直接影响,以及外部障碍、主观规范和骑行态度的间接影响;外生变量对转移意向不产生直接影响,而是通过其他潜在变量对转移意向产生间接影响;外部障碍、骑行态度是客观环境与转移意向间的完全中介变量,骑行态度、骑行偏好是小汽车限制措施与转移意向间的完全中介变量,说明通过干预措施提升人们对环境的感知至关重要,通过小汽车限制措施提升态度与偏好是推进转移的重要手段.To systematically research the impacts of psychological latent factors and exogenous factors on transition from driving to bicycling in short-distance travel, a multiple indicators and multiple cause model of transition intention was established in this paper. Latent factors based on theory of planned behavior were expanded and the interaction relationships among latent factors such as external barrier, individual barrier, bicycling preference, bicycling attitude and subjective norm and transition intention were analyzed. The causal relationships between latent factors and exogenous factors such as socio- demography, travel characteristic, objective environment and car restriction measure were also analyzed. Results show that bicycling transition intention can be adequately explained by external barrier, individual barrier, bicycling preference, bicycling attitude and subjective norm. External barrier, individual barrier, bicycling preference and subjective norm directly affect transition intention, and external barrier, subjective norm and bicycling attitude indirectly affect it. Moreover, exogenous factors have no direct effect on transition intention, but have indirect effect on transition intention by latent factors. Last but not least, external barrier and bicycling attitude are the complete intermediate variable between objective environment and transition intention, and bicycling attitude and bicycling preference are the complete intermediate variable between car restriction measure and transition intention. It indicates that the improvement of perceived environment by using intervening measures is very important. Meanwhile, the improvement of bicycling attitude and preference by implementing car restriction measure is a crucial mean to promoting the transition to bicycling.

关 键 词：交通工程 自行车出行 多指标多原因(multiple indicators and MULTIPLE causes MIMIC)模型 心理潜在因素 计划行为理论 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]