基于蓄满产流模型的中小水库入库洪水实时预报方案初探  

Study on Real-time Flood Forecast Scheme of Middle and Small Reservoir Based on Full Production Flow Model

作　　者：方细波 Fang Xiaobo(YuNeng(Group) Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 400020)

机构地区：[1]渝能(集团)有限责任公司,重庆400020

出　　处：《电子工程学院学报》2019年第6期54-55,共2页Journal of The College of Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：入库洪水实时预报是中小水库管理单位共同面临的难题,本文运用蓄满产流基本原理,在二水源划分的基础上采用谢尔曼单位线进行汇流计算,结合中小水库产汇流特点,合理概化并优选参数,提出一种适用于湿润/半湿润地区中小水库入库洪水实时预报方案。以重庆藤子沟水库2013~2018年实测入库流量为研究对象,结果表明本预报方案具有一定精度,可供无洪水预报系统中小水库管理技术人员参考。real-time flood prediction is a difficult problem for small and medium-sized reservoir management units.This paper uses the principle of full production flow,and uses Sherman unit line to calculate the confluence based on the division of two water sources,combining with the characteristics of the confluence of small and medium-sized reservoirs.Reasonable generalization and optimization of parameters,a real time forecast scheme for small and medium-sized reservoirs in wet/semi-humid areas is proposed.Based on the measured flow of fuzigou reservoir in Chongqing from 2013 to 2018,the results show that the forecast scheme has a certain precision,which can be used for reference by technical personnel of small and medium reservoir management in the flood forecasting system.

关 键 词：蓄满产流 中小水库 二水源 洪水预报 

分 类 号：TV697.4[水利工程—水利水电工程]