道路客运提前购票行为模型  

A Model for Advance Ticketing Behaviors of Road Passenger Transport

作　　者：李军[1,2] 贾顺平[1] LI Jun;JIA Shun-ping(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;China Transport Telecommunications & Information Center,Beijing 100011,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]中国交通通信信息中心,北京100011

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2019年第10期144-151,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71390332,71621001-3)

摘　　要：为了研究道路旅客购票时间选择的行为机理及影响因素,基于连续Logit模型,建立了道路旅客提前购票行为模型.首先,以旅客购票时间为切入点,辨析了旅客提前购票类型和主要时间点内在关系;其次,基于道路客运联网售票信息系统数据,选择典型线路统计分析了旅客站外和站内提前购票、取票的时间分布规律;再次,分析了离散选择模型在连续选择情境中的限制和不足,继而运用连续行为分析思想,构建了旅客提前购票行为连续Logit模型;最后,利用15条长途和15条短途线路售票数据进行了实证应用,识别了提前购票时间选择的影响因素,并评估了票价调整对旅客提前购票行为的影响.结果表明:近60%的旅客出行当天站内购票,其进站时间比站外提前购票旅客平均提前约45 min;提前购票时间选择受性别、年龄、发车频率、节假日、实载率等因素的影响,长途比短途出行的旅客提前3 d购票的概率高28%,实载率大于60%的线路提前20 d购票的比例增加5%;票价的调整会诱导旅客提前或延迟购票,票价上涨20%、下降20%、下降35%时,旅客提前3 d以上购票的概率分别降低9.67%、提高3.6%、提高11.85%.经实证分析,连续Logit模型是分析旅客提前购票行为的有效方法.In order to study the behavior mechanism and the influencing factors on ticketing time choice of passengers in road transport, the model for advance ticketing behaviors of road passengers is developed based on continuous Logit model. First, from the perspective of passengers’ ticketing time, the relationships between types of advance ticketing and main time points are analyzed. Then , based on the data of the networking ticketing information system for road passenger transport, by selecting typical routes, the time distribution of advance ticketing and pick-up in and out the station is statistically analysed. Afterwards, the limitation and deficiencies of the discrete choice model in the continuous choice behavior are analyzed, and the continuous Logit model for advance ticketing behaviors of passengers is constructed based on the idea of continuous behavior analysis. At last, the ticketing data of 15 long-distance and 15 short-distance routes are used for empirical application, the factors which influence the choice of advance ticketing time are identified, and the influence of fare adjustment on the passengers9 advance ticketing behaviors is evaluated. The result shows that (1) About 60% passengers purchase tickets on the departure day in the station, they arrive the station about 45 min earlier than the passengers who purchase tickets online advance.(2) The time of advance ticketing is affected by the factors such as gender, age, frequency of departure, holidays, and loading rate. Passengers who travel long distances over short distances are 2 8 % more likely to purchase tickets 3 d earlier. The percentage of ticketing before 20d increased by 5% for the lines with loading rate more than 60%.(3) The adjustment of fare will guide passengers to purchase tickets in advance or late. When the fare increases by 20%, decreases by 20% and 3 5 %, the probabilities of passengers purchasing tickets more than 3d in advance decreases by 9. 6 7%, increases by 3. 6% and 11. 85% respectively. The empirical analysis shows tha

关 键 词：运输经济 提前购票行为模型 连续Logit模型 行为机理 道路客运 联网售票 

分 类 号：U492.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]