基于活动区面积统计的F10.7指数预报方法  

F10.7Index Forecasting Method Based on Area Statistics of Solar Active Regions

作　　者：叶茜 宋乔[1,2] 薛炳森 YE Qian;SONG Qiao;XUE Bingsen(National Center for Space Weather,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Space Weather,National Center for Space Weather,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家空间天气监测预警中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局空间天气重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2019年第5期582-590,共9页Chinese Journal of Space Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(41404136)

摘　　要：太阳10.7cm射电流量(F10.7)是反映太阳整体活动的重要指标,其主要源头是日面活动区.F10.7指数与日面活动区具有显著的相关性,且不同面积的活动区与F10.7并不遵循相同的线性关系.为进一步提高F10.7预报的准确性,利用日面活动区面积与F10.7的相关性,依据面积大小分类,提出F10.7的预报公式并进行验证.采用2008-2018年SWPC(Space Weather Prediction Center)公布的活动区面积数据和CSWFC(Canadan Space Weather Forecast Center)公布的F10.7实测数据计算预报公式系数,利用高年(2003年)和低年(1997年)的F10.7预报验证其结果.研究结果表明,预报结果与实测值的相关系数分别为0.9318和0.9295,二者皆优于SWPC同时期的预报结果(相关系数分别为0.9186和0.8771).本研究首次基于活动区的变化预测了F10.7,提高了F10.7预测的准确性.Solar 10.7cm radio flux (F10.7) is an important indicator that reflects overall solar activity, which mainly comes from solar active regions. F10.7 index linearly correlates with the area size of the active regions. To improve the accuracy of F10.7 forecast, a new formula for F10.7 index prediction is proposed and evaluated, using the correlation between areas and F10.7 based on the classification of area size. The coefficients of the formula were calculated using the active region area data of SWPC and F10.7 index data of CSWFC from 2008 to 2018. Data of 2003 (active year) and 1997 (quiet year) were used to evaluate the formula. The results indicated the correlation coefficients between the predictions and the observations calculated by this formula were 0.9318 and 0.9295, both higher than the contemporary predictions of SWPC (0.9186 and 0.8771). This study utilized the active region areas on forecasting F10.7 for the first time and had improved the accuracy of F10.7 forecasting.

关 键 词：F10.7预报 活动区面积 太阳预报 

分 类 号：P352[天文地球—空间物理学]