基于合格值自适应后悔理论和证据理论的区间多属性决策方法  

Interval Multi-Attribute Decision Making Method Based on Pass Value Adaptive Regret Theory and Evidence Theory

作　　者：许立波[1] 舒振宇[1] 庞超逸 XU Libo;SHU Zhenyu;PANG Chaoyi(Department of Computer and Data Engineering, Zhejiang University Ningbo Institute of Technology,Ningbo 315000)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学宁波理工学院计算机与数据工程学院

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2019年第6期857-874,共18页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(LY16G010010,LY17F020018);宁波市创新团队项目(2016C11024)资助课题

摘　　要：针对属性值和权重都用区间描述的不确定性多属性决策问题,文章提出了一种基于合格值自适应后悔理论和证据理论的决策方法.该方法定义属性合格参考值,表示决策者对方案的接受度在该值以下呈现快速下降趋势.之后依据后悔理论,定义基于属性合格参考值的后悔效用函数,改善传统后悔效用函数灵活性弱和对风险规避行为的描述能力不够强的缺点.之后扩展出基于区间的效用计算方法,并基于区间最优点得到感知效用值矩阵.然后将感知效用值转化为基本概率分配函数并据此进行基于权重的证据合成.该方法还通过设定偏好态度系数以反映决策者对评价高低的倾向性.最后,通过算例分析说明了该方法的可行性,合理性和稳定性.In view of the uncertainty multi-attribute decision making problem with attribute values and weights both being interval number,a new solution based on adaptive regret theory with pass value is proposed.It can define pass value of each attribute,which means decision maker’s acceptance for the scheme under the pass value will decline quickly.Then according to traditional regret theory,the method defines an adaptive utility function based on pass value which can improve the flexibility of the traditional utility function and the ability to describing the risk aversion actions from decision makers.Then the utility function for interval number is built,and the perceived utility value matrix is obtained based on the interval’s optimal value.After that,the perceived utility values are transformed into the basic probability distribution function and the weighted evidence combination can be carried out.The method can also reflect the decision maker’s reference to high or low evaluation score by setting attitude coefficients.At last,an example is presented to examine the feasibility,effectiveness and stability of our method.

关 键 词：决策 后悔理论 证据理论 自适应 不确定性 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]