入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济的影响研究与分析  

Impact of Increasing Demand of Inbound Tourism Market on Tourism Economy

作　　者：王倩颖[1] 李明[1] WANG Qian-ying;LI Ming(School of Economics and Management,Suihua University,Suihua Heilongjiang 152061,China)

机构地区：[1]绥化学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《湖北第二师范学院学报》2019年第9期28-31,共4页Journal of Hubei University of Education

基　　金：黑龙江省省属高等学校基本科研业务费基础研究项目“基于层次分析法的寒地黑土农产品营销能力评价及对策研究”(2017-KYYWF0716);黑龙江省艺术科学规划项目“黑龙江省文化创意产业集群发展的创新机制与对策研究”(2017D003)

摘　　要：为了量化分析入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济的影响,提出一种基于主成分分析建模的入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济的影响促进性模型,构建旅游经济与入境旅游市场需求增加的相关性约束指标参量模型,以市场供给侧关系、盈利率水平、游客满意度、供需平衡性等为指标建立解释变量、控制变量和被解释变量模型。结合描述性统计分析方法进行旅游经济的促进性作用分析,采用分段线性回归分析方法进行入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济的影响的定量分析,提取旅游经济增长序列的主成分特征,采用相关性F检验方法进行旅游经济增长评估模型的平稳性检验,实现入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济的影响的递归分析。结合SPSS软件进行数据分析,实证分析结果表明,入境旅游市场需求增加对旅游经济具有显著性影响,关联性评价的置信度水平较高。In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of increasing demand in inbound tourism market on tourism economy, a promotional model is proposed, based on principal component analysis (PCA) model for the impact of increasing demand on tourism economy. Then a model of the relationship is constructell between tourism economy and the increasing demand of inbound tourism market, at the same tine, an explanatory variable is established on the supply-side relationship of the market, the level of profit rate, the satisfaction of tourists, the balance of supply and demand, and so on. Combined with descriptive statistical analysis method to analyze the promoting effect of tourism economy, the piecewise linear regression analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the impact of increasing demand in inbound tourism market on tourism economy, the principal component characteristics of tourism economic growth sequence is extracted;To test the stability of tourism economic growth evaluation model, the correlation F test method is used. The empirical results show that the increasing demand of inbound tourism market has a significant impact on the tourism economy, and the confidence level of relevance evaluation is high.

关 键 词：入境旅游 旅游经济 关联性 影响 实证分析 

分 类 号：F590.84[经济管理—旅游管理]