中国对“一带一路”沿线国家苹果出口贸易研究——基于引力模型的实证分析  

Research on China’s Apple Export to Countries along “The Belt and Road”——Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：朱海燕 刘学忠[1,2] Zhu Haiyan;Liu Xuezhong(Research Center of Apple Industry Development,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109;School of Economics,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学苹果产业发展研究中心,青岛266109 [2]青岛农业大学经济学院,青岛266109

出　　处：《林业经济》2019年第9期67-72,共6页Forestry Economics

基　　金：山东省高校科研计划项目“苹果产业新旧动能转换研究”（编号：J18RB190）;青岛农业大学人文社科重点项目“山东苹果价格波动对苹果生产影响的研究”（编号：661/1115728）;青岛农业大学高层次人才科研基金项目“山东苹果价格波动及生产影响因素研究”（编号：663/1115712）;山东省软科学项目“山东省苹果出口结构调整及可持续发展研究”（编号：2013RKB01044）

摘　　要：文章分析了2002~2017年中国对沿线24个国家的苹果出口变化情况,通过构建引力模型,分析了中国对沿线国家苹果出口贸易的影响因素,并在此基础上测算了出口贸易的潜力。研究结果表明:中国的GDP、"一带一路"沿线进口国的GDP、人口数量和开放程度、中国与进口国间是否有优惠贸易安排对中国苹果出口量有显著正影响,中国与进口国的距离、苹果平均出口价格对中国苹果出口量有显著负影响;中国对这些国家苹果出口潜力存在差异,需要根据潜力类型制定不同发展对策。This paper analyzed the changes of China's apple exports to 24 countries along"the Belt and Road" from 2002 to 2017.By building a gravity model,it analyzed the factors that influence China's apple exports to these countries and calculated the export trade potentiality on this basis.The results showed that China's GDP,the GDP of the importing countries along the"Belt and Road",the population and the degree of openness,and whether China and the importing countries belong to the same trade organization had a significant positive impact on China's apple export volume.The distance between China and importing countries and the average export price of apples had a significant negative impact on China's apple export volume.The results of trade potential measurement showed that China had different potential of apple export to these countries,and different development strategies should be formulated according to the potential types.

关 键 词："一带一路" 苹果出口贸易 引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F307.24[经济管理—产业经济]