城镇化、生产性服务业与减贫协同作用机制及测度  

Synergistic Mechanism and Measurement of Urbanization, Productive Service Industry and Poverty Reduction

作　　者：马国勇 蔡玲松[1] 杜荣荣 MA Guo-yong;CAI Ling-song;DU Rong-rong(College of Economics and Management, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China;College of Economics Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《预测》2019年第5期90-96,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BJY056)

摘　　要：城镇化与产业发展协同推进是促进减贫的重要动力源。本文将城镇化、生产性服务业与减贫视为一个复合减贫系统,深入分析了三者协同作用机制,在此基础上构建了协同度测度模型,并利用2009~2017年面板数据对复合减贫系统协同度进行测算。实证结果表明,复合减贫系统整体协同度较低但呈稳步缓慢上升态势;城镇化子系统与减贫子系统、生产性服务业子系统的协同度较高,但生产性服务业子系统与减贫子系统的协同度较低。据此,应该推进城镇化促进生产性服务业发展,实现城镇化与生产性服务业双轮驱动促进减贫,一方面要制定科学合理的城镇化发展规划;另一方面要积极推进一二三产业融合发展,大力发展生产性服务业。The coordinated promotion of urbanization and industrial development is an important driving force for poverty reduction. This paper regards urbanization, productive service industry and poverty reduction as a composite poverty reduction system. The synergistic mechanism of the three systems is analyzed in depth. On this basis, a synergistic measurement model is constructed and the synergistic degree of the composite poverty reduction system is measured using panel data from 2009 to 2017. The empirical results show that the overall synergy of the composite poverty reduction system is low but rising steadily and slowly;the synergy of the urbanization subsystem with the poverty reduction subsystem and the productive service industry subsystem is good, but the synergy of the productive service industry subsystem and the poverty reduction subsystem is low. Therefore, we should promote urbanization to promote the development of productive service industry, realize the dual-wheel drive of urbanization and productive service industry to promote poverty reduction. On the one hand, we should formulate a scientific and rational urbanization development plan;on the other hand, we should actively promote the integration of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and vigorously cultivate the development of productive service industry.

关 键 词：城镇化 生产性服务业 减贫 协同度模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]