怀化站暴雨气候特征及成因分析  

The Climatic Characteristics of Heavy Rain in Huaihua Station and Its Cause Analysis

作　　者：刘健[1] 娄运生[1,2] 尹庆奖 王强[4] LIU Jian;LOU Yun-sheng;YIN Qing-jiang(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044;Hecheng District Meteorological Bureau of Huaihua City,Huaihua,Hunan 418000)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]湖南省怀化市鹤城区气象局,湖南怀化418000 [4]湖南省怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2019年第20期224-227,237,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41875177,41375159)

摘　　要：以1958—2017年怀化站日降水大于50mm的地面观测资料为基础,利用小波分析、M-K检验、线性趋势分析,探究了暴雨气候特征,并利用典型相关分析、交叉小波和小波相干分析了暴雨与西太副高的关系。结果表明:暴雨日存在以20年为主的周期、最大暴雨量存在以22~23年为主的周期。暴雨日、最大暴雨量分别在2014年、1988年存在突变,最大暴雨量呈增加趋势。暴雨可发生于2月中旬—11月下旬(除3月上旬、11月中旬外),4月下旬—7月中旬为暴雨集中发生时域。年暴雨日数、年平均暴雨量、年最大暴雨量、年暴雨总量、年暴雨总量占总降水百分比均呈增加趋势。年暴雨日数的振荡幅度最大,年平均暴雨量振荡幅度最小。西太副高标准化典型相关变量byr与暴雨日数呈滞后负相关关系,西太副高标准化典型相关变量bfb与暴雨总量占总降水百分比呈滞后正相关关系。Based on the ground observation data of Huaihua station with daily precipitation greater than 50 mm from 1958 to 2017,wavelet analysis,MK test and linear trend analysis were used to explore the climatic characteristics of heavy rain.Typical correlation analysis,cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis were used to investigate the relationship between heavy rain and West Pacific subtropical high.The results showed that,there were 20 years cycle for the rainstorm days and 22-23 years cycle for the maximum rainfall.In 2014 and 1988,sudden changes in heavy rain and maximum rainfall occurred,and the maximum rainfall tended to increase.Heavy rains occurred from mid-February to late-November (except in early March and mid-November),but mainly from mid-April to mid-July.The number of annual torrential rains,annual average torrential rain,annual maximum torrential rain,total annual torrential rain,and total annual torrential rain as a percentage of total precipitation all showed increasing trends.The annual number of torrential rains had the largest oscillation amplitude,and the smallest was the annual average rainfall.The typical correlation variable byr of the West Pacific subtropical high was laggingly negatively correlated with the number of rainstorm days.The typical correlation variable bfb of the West Pacific subtropical high is laggingly positively correlated with the total rainfall percentage.

关 键 词：暴雨 气候特征 西太副高 交叉小波和小波相干 怀化站 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]