我国互联网金融股票的内在价值被高估了吗?——基于A股市场互联网金融股票的实证分析  

Is the Intrinsic Value of Unternet-based Finance Stocks Overvalued?——Empirical Analysis on Internet-based Finance Stocks in A-share Market

作　　者：赵毅[1] 唐重振 李东[1] 董文文[1] 程富 杨秀丽 ZHAO Yi;TANG Chong-zhen;LI Dong;DONG Wen-wen;CHENG Fu;YANG Xiu-li(School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001,China;School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China;School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Economics, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]桂林理工大学人文社会科学学院,广西桂林541004 [3]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [4]哈尔滨师范大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《系统工程》2019年第5期130-138,共9页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(70972097)

摘　　要：通过比较与经典剩余收益模型F-O模型一脉相承的Frankel-Lee模型(1998)和Kim等模型(2013),对22支互联网金融股票有效样本的内在价值进行计算,经过配对样本T检验与Wilcoxon秩和检验,选择凸显行业特征并对股价解释相对准确的Kim等模型来计算我国互联网金融股票的内在价值。通过研究在2017年上证综指不同点位下互联网金融股票的价格泡沫,发现互联网金融股票价格泡沫整体平均水平为负泡沫,有近一半股票的内在价值被低估,进而分析互联网金融股票内在价值被低估的原因,并针对如何提振投资者信心提出对策。This paper compares the effectiveness of Frankel-Lee model(1998) and Kim et al. model(2013) by evaluating the intrinsic value of Internet-based Finance stocks in China’s A-share market respectively, both of which originate from the classical F-O model of residual income model. Through the paired-sample T test and Wilcoxon rank sum test based on 22 valid samples,it is explored that Kim et al. model highlights industry-specific features and has more accurate capability to interpret stocks price variation. After conducting an empirical study on the price bubbles of Internet-based Finance stocks at different points of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in 2017, the paper draws the conclusion that the Internet-based Finance stocks have negative bubbles on average in 2017, and about half of them are undervalued on intrinsic value surprisingly. More importantly, some reasons behind the devaluation are analyzed and some suggestions are put forward to restore investors’ confidence.

关 键 词：互联网金融 内在价值 泡沫水平 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]