交通基础设施联通对“丝绸之路经济带”的经济影响研究——基于CGE的模拟分析  

Study on Economic Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Connectivity along the “Silk Road Economic Belt”——Based on CGE Model

作　　者：朱博恩 张伯伟[2] 马骆茹 ZHU Boen;ZHANG Bowei;MA Luoru(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100192;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071;School of Economics and Management,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2019年第5期41-55,共15页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：北京信息科技大学学校科研基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议互联互通的经济效应分析”(1835005);天津科技发展战略计划项目“新兴经济体促进技术进步的财政政策及其对我市借鉴作用研究”(10ZLZLZF04200);北方工业大学科研启动基金“营商环境与企业的研发行为”(110051360002)

摘　　要：基础设施互联互通是“一带一路”建设的优先领域,其对沿线各国经济发展和贸易便利化至关重要。基于第9版GTAP数据库,通过构建CGE模型对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家交通基础设施联通建设的优先级进行了排序,并在此基础上对其产生的经济效应进行了模拟分析。结果表明,经济带的中间区域确实是建设的重点所在,设施联通对整个经济带乃至世界经济的促进作用都非常显著,沿线各国均在不同程度上受益,其中独联体国家、蒙古国和部分东欧国家的受益相对较大;然而设施联通带来沿线多数国家贸易逆差的扩大值得关注。此外,对非“一带一路”沿线国家而言,设施联通并未带来明显的负面影响,甚至部分国家还能从“搭便车”中获益。Facilities connectivity, the prior construction field of "the Belt and Road" initiative is crucial to regional economic development and trade facilitation. Building a CGE model with the GTAP 9 Data Base, this paper discusses the priority of transportation infrastructure construction along the "Silk Road Economic Belt” firstly. Then it analyses the economic effect of infrastructure connectivity in the future through simulation. The results show that the middle area of the economic belt is the key point of infrastructure construction. Facilities connectivity will promote the economy of "the Belt and Road" and even the world significantly. The countries along the routes will benefit in varying degrees, and among them, CIS, Mongolia and some Eastern European countries will gain relatively greater benefits. However, many countries along"the Belt and Road" will face the expansion of trade deficit after facilities connectivity, which requires attention. Furthermore, facilities connectivity won't cause a significant negative impact on the non - Belt - and - Road countries, even some of which can benefit from being "free riders".

关 键 词：“丝绸之路经济带” 交通基础设施联通 可计算的一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济]