基于EM-CCDM-RDDM模型的区域用水效率与产业结构耦合协调评价  

Coupling Coordination Evaluation of Regional Water Efficiency and Industrial Structure Based on EM-CCDM-RDDM Model

作　　者：胡绵好 廖桂萱 袁菊红[3] HU Mian-hao;LIAO Gui-xuan;YUAN Ju-hong(Jiangxi University of Finance & Economicsa.Institute of Ecological Economics,Nanchang 330032,china;School of Tourismand Urban Management,Nanchang 330032,china;Institute of Landscape and Plant Resources,Nanchang 330032,china)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学生态经济研究院,南昌330032 [2]江西财经大学旅游与城市管理学院,南昌330032 [3]江西财经大学风景园林与植物资源研究所,南昌330032

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2019年第10期1-12,共12页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(21407069,21367013,71463020);江西省自然基金(20142BAB203024,20151BAB203034);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ180265)

摘　　要：分析鄱阳湖生态经济区典型区域产业结构调整与水资源利用效率耦合协调关系,为制定鄱阳湖生态经济区内产业结构转型升级及优化用水结构等政策提供参考依据。以鄱阳湖生态经济区典型区域为例,利用熵权法(EM法)、耦合协调度模型(CCDM)和相对发展度模型(RDDM)对其用水效率与产业结构的耦合协调发展度进行测算分析。研究结果:①2009-2015年典型区域内的用水效率变化较大,且近年来还呈上升的趋势;典型区域第一产业比重呈下降趋势,第二产业比重呈先上升后下降趋势,第三产业比重呈先下降后上升趋势,且其产业结构基本特征和变化特征方面差异明显。②典型区域用水效率与产业结构变化速度间的相互影响明显,且耦合关系皆处于拮抗阶段但趋近于磨合阶段的位置,正经历从濒临失调到勉强协调的状况。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态经济区典型地区的用水效率系统与产业结构系统耦合关系虽拮抗但趋于优化状态,发展水平的提升空间仍很大。This paperanalyzes thecouplingandcoordination relationshipbetween industrial structureadjustmentand water resource utilization efficiency of typical regions in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone,and to provides reference for formulating policies on industrial structure transformation and upgradingand optimizing water use structure in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone.[Methods] Taking the typical regions in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zoneasan example, Entropy Method (EM),couplingcoordination Degree Model (CCDM)and Relative Development Degree Model (RDDM) were used tocalculateand analyze thecouplingcoordination degreebetween water use efficiencyand industrial structure of typical regions.[Results]① Thechanges of water efficiency was larger in the typical regions during 2009-2015,and hada rising trend in recent years;In typical regions, the proportion of primary industry was decreasing, the proportion of secondary industry was rising firstand then declining, while that of tertiary industry was decreasing firstand then rising,and there were obvious differences inbasiccharacteristicsandchanging characteristics of their industrial structure.②The interactionbetween water efficiencyand thechange rate of industrial structure was obvious in the typical regions, the coupling relationship was in theantagonistic stagebutclose to the grinding stage,and it′s going frombeing on the verge of dissonance tobarelycoordination.[Conclusion] The coupling relationshipbetween water efficiency systemand industrial structure system in typical regions of Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone wasantagonisticbut tends tobe optimized, and there is still much room for improvement of development level.

关 键 词：用水效率 产业结构 耦合协调 鄱阳湖生态经济区 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]