1990年以来中国省级人口普查数据内部一致性检验及修正——以上海、四川和内蒙古为例  

The Internal Consistency Inspection and Correction of Chinese Provincial Census Data Since 1990——Taking Shanghai, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia as Examples

作　　者：董隽含 李强[1] DONG Jun-han;Li Qiang(School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学社会发展学院

出　　处：《南方人口》2019年第5期1-14,共14页South China Population

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503082);“上海浦江人才计划(13PJC030)”的支持

摘　　要：人口普查数据的质量评估和检验是人口学的重要议题。目前大部分的相关研究是检验全国人口普查数据,较少考察省级普查数据质量。文章选取地域特征鲜明,人口特征差异较大的三个省份:上海、四川和内蒙古,根据1990-2010年普查公布的人口结构与参数指标,运用二维死亡模型、队列存活法和反向预测法模拟三个省份以往20年的人口进程,以此检验与修正三个省份三次人口普查数据。研究发现,上海普查数据低估了1990和2000年的死亡率,高估了2010年的死亡率;四川死亡率的高估与生育率的低估较为突出;内蒙古的生育率低估和人口漏报较为明显。死亡率偏差主要是45岁以下的高估和60岁及以上的低估。生育数据存在一定程度的低估,2000年上海的普查生育率比实际生育率低估约0.015,四川两次普查分别低估0.35和0.44,1990年内蒙古普查生育率低估0.36。净迁移人口的年龄结构比迁移存量人口结构更年轻。The quality assessment and inspection of census data have always been an important issue of demography. At present,most of the relevant researches focus on national census data quality rather than on provincial census data. This article assessed the data quality of census data in 1990,2000 and 2010 at the province level using Shanghai,Sichuan,and Inner Mongolia as examples by using "two-dimensional mortality model","cohort survival method" and "reverse prediction method" to simulate the past twenty-year population dynamics of these three provinces. The findings show that mortality in Shanghai's census is underestimated in 1990-2000 but overestimated in 2010;while the overestimation of mortality and underestimation of fertility rate were more prominent in Sichuan's census,and the underestimate of fertility and the population unreported is obvious in Inner Mongolia census. Generally speaking,the mortality bias can concludes as the overestimate of the age of 45 years old and above and the underestimate of the age 60 and above;while the fertility bias mainly are various underestimate,the census fertility rate may be underestimated by 0.01 in 2000 in Shanghai,by 0.35 and 0.44 in 2000 and 2010 census in Sichuan,and by 0.36 in 1990 in Inner Mongolia census. The age structure of net immigration population is younger than that of stock migration population.

关 键 词：省级人口普查数据 数据质量检验 反向预测法 队列存活法 人口指标内部一致性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]