水文随机变量二维分布及其应用  

Binary distribution function of hydrology randon variable and it’s applications

作　　者：芮孝芳[1] RUI Xiaofang(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjin 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2019年第5期36-42,65,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金(41430855)

摘　　要：基于概率论对具有任意分布函数的两水文随机变量之间的关系进行了识别。对服从二维正态分布的水文随机变量之间的关系特点进行了分析。论述了寻求一般二维分布的Copula函数法和形变函数法的理论基础,指出Copula函数法的实质是通过一个连接函数将两个具有相关关系的变量的边际分布耦合成二维分布,而形变函数法的实质则是抓住二维分布的条件均值和条件方差两个主要数字特征,通过形变函数来构建二维分布。最后对二维分布在水文资料插补展延、概率水文预报、非一致性样本频率分析、水工程风险率确定、设计洪水、干支流洪水及洪潮遭遇组合、地貌瞬时单位线等水文学问题中的应用进行了剖析与展望。The correlation between two hydrology randon variables with arbitrary distribution functon is distinguished. The characteristics of correlation between two hydrology randon variables with the normal distribution function are analysed. Thefundamentals of Copula function and deformation function ditermined binarry distribution runction between two hydrology randon variables are discussed. The natures of Copula function method and deformation function method are pointed out. Finally, applications of binary distributon function in in terpolation and extension of data, probability hydrology forecasting, frequency analysis of inconsistency sample, risk probability of water engineering, design flood, geomorphologic instantameous unit hydrograph etc. are dissected and prospected.

关 键 词：二维分布函数 COPULA函数 形变函数 资料插补展延 概率水文预报 非一致性样本频率分析 水工程风险率 设计洪水 地貌瞬时单位线 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]