弱信号传递博弈研究:基于传信博弈视角  

Weak Signal Transmitting Game:A Signaling Game Perspective

作　　者：董尹[1] 刘千里[2] 章蕾[1] Dong Yin

机构地区：[1]合肥学院管理系,安徽合肥230601 [2]南京大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2019年第10期21-28,共8页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“弱信号生命周期视角下的供应链风险信号识别研究”(项目编号:71603069);国家社会科学基金青年项目“意义构建视野下安全情报的弱信号研究”(项目编号:15CTQ032);安徽省高校人文社会科学重点项目(项目编号:SK2018A0595)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：[目的/意义]弱信号是发送者在对外部环境进行观察之后的主观判断,具有将其传递给接收者的过程,为了加深对弱信号的理论研究,需要对传递过程中的两者的博弈行为,以及包含的甄别机制和效用变化进行探究。[方法/过程]以传信博弈理论作为基础,通过对传信博弈相关研究进行梳理获得灵感。在Lewis传信博弈模型框架下引入协调参数ξ和佐证信息e,形成具有甄别机制的弱信号传递博弈模型,并对该模型进行均衡求解与算例分析。[结果/结论]在弱信号传递博弈过程中存在混同均衡和局部分离均衡。混同均衡中,β<1-α时易形成"妄言约定",β>1-α时易形成"坦言约定";当接收者的策略选择不依赖佐证信息e时,存在一个μ~R值使发送者能够保持混同。局部分离均衡中,发送者和接收者都存在相应的混合策略概率表达。均衡结果也反映出:信任在弱信号传递过程中起重要作用;佐证信息和先验概率的质量是接收者进行策略选择时的关键因素。[Purpose/significance] Weak signal is a subjective judgment from observing external environment by sender.It has a process that sender transmits weak signal to receiver.It is required that exploring the game behavior between them,screening mechanism and change of utility within the game process for deepening weak signal theory research.[Method/process] Based on the signaling game theory,getting inspiration from literature review of signaling game related research.On the basis of Lewis’ signaling game model,this paper introduces coordination parameter ξ and proof information e into the framework.Then constructing weak signal transmitting game model with screening mechanism,making equilibrium analysis and case study.[Result/conclusion] There are pooling PBE and partially-separating PBE in weak signal transmitting game.In pooling PEB,when β<1-α,should form "nonsense convention";when β>1-α,should form "truth convention".There is a μ~R value could help sender to hold pooling PBE when receiver’s strategy doesn’t depend on proof information.In partially-separating PBE,sender and receiver have probabilistic expression of mix strategies with each other.Equilibrium results have conclusion that trust play important role in the process of weak signal transmitting,and quality of proof information and prior probability are key factors in receiver’s strategy selection.

关 键 词：弱信号 传信博弈 甄别机制 模型构建 

分 类 号：G201[文化科学—传播学]