基于生产侧和消费侧的京津冀地区电力工业CO2排放因素分解分析  

Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emission Factor in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Electric Power Industry Based on Production-side and Consumption-side

作　　者：陈贵景[1,2] 常克亮 陈慧琴[1] 施智杰 Chen Guijing;Chang Keliang;Chen Huiqin;Shi Zhijie(School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Shanxi Datong University,Datong 037009,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学数学与计算机科学学院,山西大同037009 [2]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [3]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2019年第20期251-258,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“多准则决策中几个问题的探讨以及基于准测度的群决策研究”(71571019)

摘　　要：基于消费者责任原则计算京津冀地区电力工业的CO2排放量,利用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)分析2001-2016年京津冀地区电力工业CO2排放生产侧和消费侧九个影响因素的贡献值和贡献率,认为发电量效应、碳强度效应、人均GDP效应和人口规模效应是京津冀地区电力工业CO2排放量增长的主要促进因素;电力生产结构效应、化石能源转换效率和用电效率效应是主要抑制因素;发电量效应、化石能源转换效率和人均GDP是造成三地电力工业CO2排放差异的主要因素。The study estimates CO2 emissions from power industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(2001-2016) region by the consumption-based accounting principle. The LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method) method is used to analyze the contribution values and contribution rates of nine influencing factors based on production side and consumption side about the CO2 emissions from power industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Several conclusions are obtained:(1)Power generation effect, carbon intensity effect, per capita GDP effect and population size effect are the main factors to promote CO2 emissions growth from the power industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from2001-2016, and the main restraining factors for the growth of CO2 emissions from the power industry are power production structure effect, fossil energy conversion efficiency effect and power efficiency effect(2) Power generation effect, fossil energy conversion efficiency effect and per capita GDP effect are main factors contributing to the CO2 emissions difference of power industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Finally, some suggestions were given to provide policy reference for the coordinated emission reduction of the power industry in Beijing-Tianjin – Hebei region.

关 键 词：LMDI方法 京津冀地区 电力工业 CO2排放 消费者责任原则 生产侧 消费侧 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程]