考虑伤员受伤程度的医疗应急资源分配决策研究  

Study on Decision Making of Medical Emergency Resource Allocation Considering the Degree of Injured Wounded

作　　者：潘新超 刘勤明[1] 叶春明[1] PAN Xinchao;LIU Qinming;YE Chunming(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2019年第7期1159-1170,共12页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71840003,71471116);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJCZH096)资助课题

摘　　要：针对突发事件发生后的伤员救治时效性强、资源紧缺等问题,研究灾后多种医疗应急资源的分配优化决策问题.首先用修正后的伽玛分布模拟伤员的到达情况,并用定积分算出各决策阶段的到达伤员数.其次,根据伤员伤情将伤员分流救治,并设计出符合隐式半马尔可夫规律的治疗效果的伤情转移矩阵,根据似然函数设计离散迭代法计算出恶化因子.最后,综合考虑伤情好转收益、无治疗效果与等待的惩罚,用动态规划算法安排伤员救治,并用两个数值算例对模型进行对比分析.Aiming at such issues as the timeliness of emergency treatment and the shortage of resources after the emergency, the distribution optimization decision-making of various medical emergency resources after a disaster is studied. Firstly, the modified Gamma distribution was used to simulate the arrival of the wounded and the definite integral was used to calculate the number of arriving wounded in each decision stage. Secondly, according to the degree of injured wounded, the wounded were divided into triage, and the injury transfer matrix was designed according to the hidden semi Markov rule. The discrete iteration factor method was used to calculate the factor of deterioration based on the likelihood function. Finally, considering the improvement of the benefits, the penalty of no treatment effect and waiting, the dynamic programming algorithm was used to arrange the treatment of the wounded, and two numerical examples were used to compare and analyze the model.

关 键 词：伽玛分布 隐半马尔可夫 似然函数 动态规划 状态转移 

分 类 号：R129[医药卫生—环境卫生学] O221.3[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]