基于城市群的住房需求相关性及政策影响研究  

Research on the Relevance of Housing Demand and Policy Impact Based on Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：杨赞[1,2] 丁立群 杨鸿杰[1,2] YANG Zan;DING Li-qun;YANG Hong-jie(Department of Construction Management,Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Hang Lung Center for Real Estate,Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084 [2]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2019年第11期100-106,共7页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“不确定性在房地产市场中的微观传导机制和效应:基于居民住房决策的研究”(71673154)

摘　　要：文章基于2012-2017年全国6个城市群的数据,使用时间序列实证分析方法,探讨了住房需求在城市间可能存在的“波纹效应”,以及6个城市群内和北京、上海、广州和深圳4个城市之间存在住房需求变化的传导机制。论文进一步基于上海“325新政”,通过分析政策实施期与政策取消后传导路径的变化,探讨了政策在住房需求传导中的作用。本文有助于弥补现有文献在住房需求空间相关性方面的研究的不足,对深入理解住房需求变化、把握城市之间的关联以及制定针对性住房政策具有重要意义。Based on the data of six urban agglomerations in China from 2012 to 2017 and using the empirical analysis method of time series,this paper explores the possible "ripple effect " of housing demand among cities,and the transmission mechanism of housing demand changes between six urban agglomerations and four cities in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Based on the "325 New Deal "in Shanghai,this paper further explores the role of policy in housing demand transmission by analyzing the changes of transmission path during the implementation period and after the cancellation of policy. This paper is helpful to remedy the deficiency of the existing literature on the spatial correlation of housing demand. It is of great significance to understand the changes of housing demand,grasp the relationship between cities and formulate targeted housing policies.

关 键 词：住房需求 空间相关 波纹效应 城市群 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3