基于贝叶斯方法的贵州高原百花水库水体营养盐变化及评价(2014-2018年)  

Variation and evaluation of nutrients in Baihua Reservoir in Guizhou Plateau based on Bayesian method,2014-2018

作　　者：袁振辉 李秋华[1] 何应 马欣洋 韩孟书 孙荣国[3] 张华俊 YUAN Zhenhui;LI Qiuhua;HE Ying;MA Xinyang;HAN Mengshu;SUN Rongguo;ZHANG Huajun(Key Laboratory for Information System of Mountainous Area and Protection of Ecological Environment of Guizhou Province, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, P. R. China;Key Laboratory of Information and Computing Science Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550001, P. R. China;School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, P. R. China;Guizhou Zhonghuan Technology Co., Ltd., Guiyang 550003, P. R. China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学贵州省山地环境信息系统与生态环境保护重点实验室,贵阳550001 [2]贵州省信息与计算科学重点实验室,贵阳550001 [3]贵州师范大学化学与材料科学学院,贵阳550001 [4]贵州中环科技有限公司,贵阳550003

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2019年第6期1623-1636,共14页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41563012,U1612442);贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合平台人才[2018]5805);贵州省教育厅(黔教合KY字[2017]032);贵阳市科技计划项目(筑科合同[2019]2-9号);白云区科技局项目(白科合同[2017]19号)联合资助

摘　　要：为了确定百花水库营养盐变化特征,选取百花水库5个监测点2014年1月-2018年7月共28个月份的水质实测数据,分析溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮的年际变化特征.采用基于熵权法赋权的贝叶斯理论对5个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,并结合水库的实际状况,从生态修复、工业污染源、沉积物中营养盐、水库季节性热分层及农业与生活污染源5个方面对其水质变化的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:2014-2018年水体环境波动较大;除总氮外,各污染指标浓度均有不同程度的下降;综合水质后验概率表明百花水库水质有逐渐变差的趋势;总氮和总磷治理应成为百花水库污染治理的主要方面;生态修复工程的开展和工业污染源的削减是百花水库水质转好的主要影响因素,农业与生活污染源的增加是百花水库水质转差的主要影响因素.To determine the variations of nutrients, the observation data on water quality are analyzed at five monitoring sites of Baihua Reservoir from January 2014 to July 2018, including the characteristics of annual variation of dissolved oxygen, permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The Bayesian theory based on entropy weight method was used to evaluate the comprehensive water quality of the five monitoring sites according to the situation of Baihua Reservoir. The driving force analysis on the water quality variation is carried out in terms of ecological restoration, industrial pollution sources, nutrients in sediments, seasonal thermal stratification of reservoirs and agricultural and domestic pollution sources. The results show that during the period of 2014 to 2018, the water environment of Baihua Reservoir was fluctuated greatly. Except TN, the concentration of each pollution index decreased with different degrees. The comprehensive water quality posterior probability indicates that the water quality of Baihua Reservoir had gradually deteriorated and the governance of TN and TP should be the main manner of pollution controls. The key driving factors of the water quality were getting better due to the development of ecological restoration projects and the reduction of industrial pollution sources, while the increase of agricultural and domestic pollutions were the main factors for the deterioration of water quality in Baihua Reservoir.

关 键 词：贝叶斯理论 富营养化指标 水质评价 百花水库 贵州高原 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]