中美贸易摩擦下的中国经济形势  

作　　者：黄志刚 

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院福建省金融科技创新重点实验室 [2]福州大学党委 [3]中组部 [4]中宣部 [5]国家社会科学基金学科规划评审组 [6]中国人民银行货币政策委员会 [7]国家级福州大学企业经济活动虚拟仿真实验教学中心 [8]福建省科技金融创新重点实验室 [9]中国工业经济学会 [10]福建省中青年经济研究会

出　　处：《企业经济》2019年第10期5-17,F0002,共14页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项“创新‘一带一路’金融国际合作机制研究”（项目编号：18VDL012）

摘　　要：党的十九大描绘了未来中国社会经济的发展蓝图,提出通过实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标在中国建设与新时代相适应的现代化经济体系,并把中国建设成为富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国。中国的发展仍处在重要战略机遇期,但也面临更为复杂的国内外发展环境。就国内环境而言,新旧动能转变尚待时日,新时代发展新兴生产力需要建立新的体制机制;就国际环境而言,最不确定的因素来自美国,最深层的原因是中国的发展强大可能触及其世界霸权主义的核心利益。研究认为,中国有实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的底气;美国的战略焦虑致使其调整对华战略——从战略接触变为战略竞争对手,这一战略变化预示着美国对中国发展的干扰和遏制,不仅不会停止而且还有可能扩展和加深,这一态势可能会一直延续到中国经济总量大大超过美国而告一段落。由此判断,中美贸易摩擦的发生是迟早的,能否达成协议没有本质区别。但是,若能最终达成协议,从短期来说未来两年中国经济发展会相对平稳,否则在新旧动能还未完成转变之际会加大中国经济的波动,但仍会保持在6%左右;从长期看,若能达成协议,中国经济将会获得一段相对较好的发展时间,用时间换空间,实现新旧动能较快转变,否则中美间的贸易摩擦有更大的可能性扩展到其他领域。The 19th National Congress of the CPC depicts the blueprint for the development of China's social economy in the future. It proposes to build a modern economic system that is compatible with the new era in China through the realization of the Two Centenary Goals, and to build China into a powerful socialist modernization country with prosperity, democracy, civilization, harmony and beauty. China's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities, but it also faces a more complex domestic and international development environment. As far as its own development is concerned, the transformation of old and new drivers will take time while the development of new productive forces in the new era requires the establishment of new systems and mechanisms. In terms of the international environment, the most uncertain factor comes from the United States. The deepest reason is that China's strong development will touch the core interests of its world hegemonism. This study believes that China has the ambition to achieve the Two Centenary Goals, and the strategic anxiety of the United States has led to its adjustment of its strategy toward China, which changes from strategic engagement to strategic competitors. This strategic adjustment indicates interference and containment from the US with China's development will not stop but more likely to expand and deepen. This situation may continue until the Chinese economy has outdistanced the United States. Judging from this, the Sino-US trade friction is happening eventually and there is no essential difference whether an agreement can be reached. If the agreement can be finally reached, China's economic development will be relatively stable in the next two years in the short term. Otherwise, the Chinese economy will be more volatile when the old and new drivers have not yet been completed, but the rate of economic growth will remain at around 6%. If the agreement can be reached, the Chinese economy will gain a relatively good period of development in the long

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 经济形势 面临的问题 发展着力点 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]