复杂装备维修项目风险评估与控制CPN模型  

The CPN Model of Complex Equipment Maintenance Project Risk Assessment and Control

作　　者：董鹏[1] 颜功达 余鹏[1] 卢苇[1] DONG Peng;YAN Gong-da;YU Peng;LU Wei(Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economic,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2019年第10期32-37,共6页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71320107001)

摘　　要：复杂装备维修工程范围广、周期长,易产生安全、质量、进度及费用风险。为解决维修工程整体风险评估问题,通过定义维修单元任务,明确了维修工程整体风险评估建模需求和模型框架;建立了单元任务风险仿真以及单元任务逻辑关联的CPN模型;构建了以单元任务风险评估值为输入的工程整体风险仿真CPN模型。应用该模型,进行了柴油机中修风险仿真评估及控制分析,操作过程及仿真结果说明了模型的正确性。Complex equipment maintenance projects are prone to have risks in safety, quality, schedule and cost. In order to solve the problem of the whole risk assessment of the maintenance project, this paper defines the requirements of the whole process risk assessment model and the framework of the model by defining the task of maintenance unit. The CPN model of unit task risk simulation and unit task logic relationship is established, and on the basis of which, the CPN model of the whole risk simulation of the maintenance project is formed with the unit task risk assessment value as input. The model is used to simulate the risk of the diesel engine repair project. The simulation results show that the model is correct.

关 键 词：风险评估 维修工程 整体 单元任务 CPN 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] TJ01[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]