基于回归分析的地下水污染预警模型  

EARLY WARNING MODEL FOR GROUNDWATER POLLUTION BASED ON REGRESSION ANALYSIS

作　　者：马晋 何鹏 杨庆 王嘉瑜 蒲生彦[1,2] MA Jin;HE Peng;YANG Qing;WANG Jia-yu;PU Sheng-yan(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Synergetic Control and Joint Remediation forSoil & Water Pollution,Chengdu 610059,China;Beijing Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,Beijing Geology and Mineral Resources Exploration and Development Bureau,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都610059 [2]国家环境保护水土污染协同控制与联合修复重点实验室,成都610059 [3]北京市地质矿产勘查开发局水文地质工程地质大队,北京100195

出　　处：《环境工程》2019年第10期211-215,共5页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41772264);水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项:京津冀地下水污染防治关键技术研究与综合示范项目(2018ZX07109);北京市自然科学基金(8181002)

摘　　要：开展地下水污染预警工作是保护地下水资源的有效措施。进行地下水污染预警理论与方法的研究,建立地下水污染预警模型,可为地下水资源管理部门提供技术支撑。以北京市平谷区平原地区地下水水体为研究对象,利用该区域2010-2017年39个地下水监测点位的主要水质指标监测数据,开展地下水污染预警模型研究。首先运用逻辑回归建立地下水污染预测概率模型,各含水层组模型的预测准确率均超过90%。其次运用逐步回归建立地下水污染预警等级评估模型,并据此确定预警等级指数范围。研究成果可为区域地下水污染预警方法体系的建立提供参考。Early warning of groundwater pollution is an effective measure to protect groundwater resource.Research on the theories and methods for early warning of groundwater pollution and construction of early warning models can provide technical support for administration of groundwater resource.The groundwater in plain areas in Pinggu District,Beijing was studied in this paper.The monitoring data of 39 sites in the study areas from 2010 to 2017 were used for the research on early warning models of groundwater pollution.Firstly,logistic regression was used to construct the probability model for prediction of groundwater pollution.The prediction accuracy of all the water bearing formations was over 90%.Then stepwise regression was used to construct the assessment model for early warning level of groundwater pollution and the level index ranges were determined.The research results can provide reference for construction of early warning method system for regional groundwater pollution.

关 键 词：地下水 污染预警 逻辑回归 逐步回归 预警等级 

分 类 号：X523[环境科学与工程—环境工程]