基于金融发展和生产多样性的经济增长与经济波动关系  

Economic growth and fluctuations:based on financial development and diversity inproduction

作　　者：武力超[1] 林澜 张晓倩 刘莉莉 WU Lichao;LIN Lan;ZHANG Xiaoqian;LIU Lili(School of International Economics and Business,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian,China;Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005 [2]中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第5期20-34,共15页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJL052);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD010);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790036)

摘　　要：针对近年来多次由金融危机引发的区域性或全球经济波动,结合全球产业重组和产业链布局调整步伐加快的时代背景,使用160个国家2000~2014年的面板数据,运用Arch-in-mean模型从金融发展和生产多样性的视角对经济增长与经济波动之间的关系再度进行探究。研究认为,经济波动对经济增长有显著负效应;金融发展(金融中介和股票市场)既会直接作用于经济增长,也会通过弱化经济波动对增长的负面影响而间接促进经济增长,且这一作用在经济发展水平较低或产业结构较为单一的经济体中更为明显。研究还认为,生产结构多样化既可以直接促进经济增长,还可以通过减轻波动对经济的不利作用间接促进经济增长,但生产多样化对经济增长的促进作用存在边际递减效应;完善的制度建设水平可以增强金融发展对经济增长的促进作用。因此,中国应进一步完善银行体系并加快建设金融服务体系,在稳步淘汰落后产能的同时,重视产业结构的优化升级,同时坚持稳健化、规则化的改革为经济增长提供健康的软环境。In view of the regional or global economic fluctuations caused time after time by the financial crisis in recent years,combined with the historical background of the global industrial restructuring and the accelerated adjustment of the industrial chain layout,this paper attempts to use the panel data of 160 countries from 2000 to 2014 and the Arch-in-mean model to examine once again the relationship between economic growth and economic fluctuations from the perspective of financial development and production diversity.Research results show that economic fluctuations have a significantly negative impact on growth;financial development(including both financial intermediaries and stock markets)could not only promote economic growth directly,but also weaken the negative impact of economic fluctuations on growth,indirectly facilitating economic growth,and this effect is more prominent in economies with low economic development level or rather simplex industrial structure.Research further holds that diversification of national production structure can promote economic growth directly and also indirectly by mitigating the adverse effects of volatility on the economy,but the promoting effect of such diversification on economic growth exhibits marginal diminishing effect.Last but not least,good institutions can enhance the positive effect of financial development on economic growth.Therefore,the Chinese government should further improve the banking system,speed up the construction of the financial service system,steadily eliminate backward production capacity,attach importance to the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,and adhere to robust and standardized reform to provide a healthy soft environment for economic growth.

关 键 词：经济波动 经济增长 金融发展 生产多样性 Arch-in-mean模型 金融服务体系 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]